
German pig market in September: Sentiment suddenly turns
Higher pig supplies and weakness in the meat market triggered a sharp change in the German market trend during September.


Higher pig supplies and weakness in the meat market triggered a sharp change in the German market trend during September.

After the exceptional respite in August, the European hog market is back on a bearish trend. Spain faces the coming months under pressure from falling prices, ASF, and growing international competition in a global market with an oversupply.

Geopolitics, oil, and a lack of purchases add uncertainty to a grain market that has already priced in the smaller harvests.

Prices recovered strongly in August, but Tönnies' new contracts and supply developments are creating uncertainty for the autumn.

This summer’s extreme heat has unexpectedly turned the European pig market on its head. A shortage of pigs and a rebound in demand have driven prices sharply higher in Spain and Germany, but competition from the world’s major exporters and weak Chinese demand paint an uncertain picture for the months ahead.

Success in pork marketing increasingly depends on understanding the customer: the buyer persona is becoming a key tool for improving margins and competitiveness.

Lower pig availability failed to support the market as weak demand, abundant pork supplies, and pressure from slaughter companies pushed the German pig sector into one of its worst crises in years.

We are facing a deep and prolonged crisis that is structural in nature. The European swine industry will be unrecognizable in two years.

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Programs to encourage leaving the industry, new regulatory requirements, and self-regulation are transforming the European swine industry.

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The heat wave in Europe and the tension in Hormuz are bringing volatility back to markets that seemed calm just a few weeks ago.

June turned out to be far more challenging for the German pig market than producers had anticipated at the beginning of the month.

Pig prices remain below cost in a saturated European market where exporting is becoming increasingly difficult.

For the first time in years, no market expects prices to be higher than the year prior.

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Vietnam has emerged as one of the most dynamic swine-producing countries in Asia, supported by strong domestic demand for pork and the modernization of pig production systems.



The Spanish pig price remains below the cost of production. With a saturated EU market, slaughterhouses operating at capacity, and a challenging summer ahead, the sector faces an inevitable paradigm shift.

May marked a noticeable turning point for the German pig market.

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Geopolitical uncertainty, the potential impact of Super El Niño and grain market volatility are keeping forward purchases on hold in a market that still remains within a not overly expensive range.

April clearly shows that stability in the market does not automatically translate into economic relief.

All players assume that, from now on, the supply of live pigs in Spain will be short.

In 2025, the Latin American swine industry established structural expansion, reaching historic milestones in production, exports, and domestic consumption. However, in 2026, the sector faces a highly complex scenario, where projected growth will have to contend with the volatility of an unstable geopolitical environment and mounting sanitary pressures that are testing regional efficiency and profitability.

The post-ASF scenario will most likely paint a picture with fewer pigs and the unfortunate absence or disappearance of a number of operators.


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The tight supply of pigs ready for slaughter pushed prices up in Germany, although demand in the meat market and structural challenges remained limiting factors. In the medium term, the decrease in supply could benefit the market.

The speed at which events have unfolded makes one want to get off this rollercoaster ride of a year, but the world doesn’t stop.

The market is gradually working its way out of a phase of tension.

There is no doubt that ASF weighs heavily on pig prices. Prices will probably rise until they reach (and possibly exceed) the cost price, but we should not expect any major joys in 2026.

Prices were expected to be significantly better than what ultimately materialized in the hog markets.

The speed and magnitude of the price drop at the beginning of January marked a discouraging start to the year for farms.

Spain has flooded the EU with cheap pork. Low pork prices dragged down prices in some countries.

Sara Mazo and Francisco Ruíz review what could affect the commodities market in 2026... at least based on the information currently available.

