VR Agrar

07-Jun-2026Anastasescu ConstantinAs a close observer of the industry and the market, rather than a provider of certainties, my view is the following:
At least for the current year, I believe that a scenario in which the German VZG 57% pork carcass price fluctuates within the €1.60–1.75/kg range, with seasonal and market-driven spikes, is considerably more likely than a strong upward or downward trend.
Why I do not expect a structural decline significantly below €1.60/kg
EU pig herds remain under pressure;
ASF continues to affect supply;
Energy and labor costs continue to rise;
Environmental requirements and EU regulations are increasing production costs;
Investments in new farming capacity are becoming increasingly difficult to amortize. In practical terms, the marginal cost of producing a pig in Europe today is substantially higher than it was 5–7 years ago.
Why I do not expect a strong recovery towards €1.90/kg+
European consumption remains weak;
Retailers are extremely price-aggressive, which also puts pressure on offers made to importers and processors;
Asia is no longer the “vacuum cleaner” for pork that it was during the 2019–2022 period;
Mercosur and other protein sources are creating indirect competitive pressure;
Consumers have become significantly more price-sensitive.
Taken together, these factors limit the market’s ability to absorb meaningful price increases.