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Beef, pork, and poultry production is expected to reach 34.08 million metric tons in 2026, representing a 2% increase over the volume produced in 2025. The upward trend is also projected for 2027, when the combined total of the three main protein sources is estimated at 34.26 million metric tons, a slight increase of 0.5% compared to this year’s forecast. The expected results for poultry and swine farming influence the projections by the National Supply Company (Conab).
The projected strong performance helps maintain stability in the domestic supply of total meat in the country, with a volume of around 22 million metric tons.
In 2026, projected pork production will keep pace with the expansion of the breeding herd and productivity gains and is expected to reach 5.93 million metric tons, maintaining a growth rate of 4.79% compared to last year. This result allows for a 6.49% increase in exports without compromising domestic market supply. Thus, shipments are estimated at 1.58 million metric tons by the end of this year, while domestic supply is estimated at 4.36 million metric tons, up 4.28%.
For 2027, the outlook for pork is similar, with a further 3.7% increase in production projected to reach 6.15 million metric tons. In addition, Conab also expects the positive trend in exports to continue, with total shipment volume estimated at 1.65 million metric tons. Once again, the increase in international sales is not expected to impact the domestic market, as domestic supply is also projected to grow by 3.6% next year, reaching an estimated 4.52 million metric tons.
Conab also projects a 3.1% increase in chicken meat production in 2026 compared to last year, potentially reaching 16.3 million metric tons. The recovery in exports this year is contributing to the projected increase. While in 2025, exports were impacted by an outbreak of avian influenza in Rio Grande do Sul, this year major importers have resumed purchases, increasing the pace of shipments. Estimates point to an 11.53% increase in exports, projected to reach 5.76 million metric tons by the end of 2026.
Next year, production is expected to continue growing, but at a moderate pace adjusted to the trend in exports. CONAB projects that 16.7 million metric tons of chicken meat will be produced in 2027. Domestic demand is expected to benefit from a 3.2% increase in domestic supply, rising from 10.57 million metric tons in 2026 to 10.9 million metric tons in 2027, while sales to the international market are projected to grow at a slower rate (0.8%), potentially reaching 5.8 million metric tons.
In the case of beef, production in 2026 is estimated at 11.84 million metric tons, a slightly lower volume than in 2025, indicating the beginning of a reversal in the livestock market. Exports, meanwhile, are expected to rise by 4.46%, reaching an estimated 4.73 million metric tons by the end of this year. This increase is occurring despite the expiration of China’s import quota for 2026, as well as the European embargo on Brazilian beef and U.S. tariffs.
For 2027, the trend points to a more pronounced decline in production, resulting from lower availability of animals for slaughter due to increased retention of females and herd rebuilding. Thus, CONAB estimates that beef production will reach 11.41 million metric tons next year. Given the reduced availability of the product, sales to the international market are expected to grow at a slower pace, projected at 4.843 million metric tons.
September 15, 2026/ Conab/ Brazil.
https://www.gov.br/conab/pt-br
