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Production
World meat production is forecast to expand at a slower pace in 2026, increasing by 1.0% year on year to reach 391 million tonnes (carcass weight equivalent). Poultry meat will remain the main contributor to global output growth while bovine and ovine meat production are expected to decline.
Global pig meat production is expected to increase modestly to reach 129.5 million tonnes in 2026, up 0.6% from the previous year. In China, measures to reduce the sow herd are expected to be offset by productivity gains, including higher piglet numbers per litter, keeping overall output broadly stable. Production growth is projected in Brazil, supported by favourable margins and robust international demand, and in the United States, underpinned by continued productivity gains. By contrast, output in the European Union is forecast to decline, constrained by ASF pressure and related trade restrictions, which have curtailed access to some key markets, while weaker import demand from China has reduced incentives for output expansion.
Trade
World meat trade is forecast to expand by 1.1% in 2026 to 43.9 million tonnes, driven mainly by anticipated increases in poultry and pig meat shipments, while bovine and ovine meat exports are expected to decline, reflecting tight exportable supplies.
World pig meat trade is projected to increase by 1.2% to 10.2 million tonnes in 2026. Import demand is projected to increase, driven by expansion in the Philippines and the Republic of Korea, where years of recurring ASF outbreaks have limited domestic slaughter availability, boosting import demand. Mexico is also anticipated to raise purchases, supported by firm domestic demand and substitution away from high- riced bovine meat, notwithstanding import quotas on supplies from partners without preferential trade agreements, imposed from 1 January 2026 and valid throughout the year. By contrast, imports by China are expected to decline, reflecting adequate domestic supplies and anti-dumping duties on pig meat from the European Union, imposed in December 2025, ranging from 4.9 to 19.8% over five years. On the export side, pig meat shipments from Brazil, Canada and the United States are expected to increase, supported by ample exportable supplies and improved competitiveness in Asian markets, reinforced by a reduced presence of the European Union, reflecting ASF-related restrictions and higher duties in China.
FAO. 2026. Food Outlook – Biannual report on global food markets. Food Outlook, June 2026. https://doi.org/10.4060/ce0204en
