
EU pork production and exports set to decline in 2027
EU pork production is forecast to decline for the first time since 2023, and exports are projected to be at the lowest level since 2015.
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EU pork production is forecast to decline for the first time since 2023, and exports are projected to be at the lowest level since 2015.

In the first seven months of 2026, the EU agri-food sector expanded its positive trade balance while pigmeat exports decreased by 13% in value.

A larger breeding herd and higher productivity per sow will support a larger pig crop. Pork exports are forecast to decline amidst a weakening global demand.

Swine inventory and production are expected to remain stable in 2027, supported by solid demand and pork's price advantage over beef. However, pork imports are set to slow following a sharp 2026 surge that left elevated stocks.

EU production in January-April 2026 amounted to 7.6 M tonnes. Both import and export volumes increased.

The EU and the Philippines reached substantial agreement in their negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), envisaged to deepen economic ties between the EU and another strategic, fast-growing partner in Southeast Asia.

Higher local production and higher import volume last year point to reduced pork imports in 2026.

The Philippines' pork production, consumption, and imports are all expected to increase in 2027.

After growing steadily between 2023 and 2025, pork imports contracted by 18.0% in the first half of the year.

The first half of 2026 presented a mixed picture for Chile’s pork industry: while hog slaughter and pork production remained virtually stable, exports continued to decline as imports increased significantly, bringing apparent consumption to its strongest semester of the 2022–2026 series.

Global pork trade has shifted away from a China-driven model toward a more fragmented and regionally distributed market.

Four of the ten months with the highest pork imports in the 2022–2026 series—and four of the ten highest export months—occurred during the first half of 2026.

Mexico’s pork trade in the first half of 2026 showed contrasting trends on two fronts: exports gained ground, driven by demand from Japan, while the value of imports fell significantly amid a widespread decline in international prices. Spain was no longer a major supplier.

Costa Rica’s swine industry closed the first half of 2026 on a strong note, driven by a more than 8% increase in hog slaughter and accelerating imports.

Brazil was the main provider of pork to the Philippines during the period.

The EU’s agri-food trade performance remained resilient in the first five months of 2026.