USDA corn and soybeans projections for 2026/2027 – October 2026

The October projections confirm a larger-than-expected corn supply in the United States, which is putting downward pressure on international prices despite the sharp drop in production in the European Union and ongoing disruptions to maritime trade from Ukraine. Soybeans, on the other hand, are seeing further growth: the rebound in the U.S. harvest and the surge in soybean meal exports from the U.S. are bolstering robust global supply, even amid a decline in Argentine shipments.

Corn

The market reacted negatively after the NASS grain stocks report as of September 30 revised U.S. old-crop corn inventories upward, which undermined the expectations of a tighter supply that had been dominating the market. Export offers fell across all origins—the U.S. dropped by $14/metric ton to $239/metric ton, Brazil fell by $8/metric ton due to seasonal pressure from the Safrinha harvest, and Argentina remained virtually stable at $219/metric ton—while Ukraine has continued to report no prices since September 1 due to attacks on its port infrastructure.

Production

• Global corn production for the 2026/27 crop year is expected to total approximately 1,293.8 Mt, representing a 2.8% decline compared to the 2025/26 crop year, last estimated at 1,330.6 Mt.
• U.S. production is expected to reach 407.3 Mt, down 5.5% from the previous crop year (430.9 Mt). China’s harvest is projected to increase by 1.9% to 307.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 15.6% decline to 48.0 Mt. Ukraine, with 31.8 Mt, would see a 2.9% increase compared to the 30.9 Mt in the previous season.
• For South American crops, Brazil’s harvest is expected to reach 139.0 Mt, down 1.4% from the 2025/26 season (141.0 Mt), while Argentina’s harvest is projected to be around 55.0 Mt, which would be 14.1% below the previous season (64.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global corn exports are expected to decline by 2.4% this marketing year, totaling 210.7 Mt.
• The U.S. would lead exports with 83.8 Mt, although this would represent a 3.8% decrease from the previous marketing year (87.1 Mt). Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine would follow with 43.0, 38.0, and 22.0 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• Globally, corn imports are expected to rise from 198.4 Mt in the 2025/26 marketing year to 203.4 Mt in this new marketing year, representing a 2.5% increase.
• Mexico is expected to be the largest importer of corn, with 27.2 Mt, representing a 3.8% increase compared to the previous marketing year (26.2 Mt).
• The European Union is expected to import 23.5 Mt, up 17.5% from the previous marketing year (20.0 Mt); Japan is expected to slightly reduce its imports by 1.3%, reaching 15.5 Mt (15.7 Mt in the previous marketing year); while Vietnam would increase its purchases by 8.1%, reaching 14.6 Mt (13.5 Mt in the previous marketing year).
• Colombia is expected to increase its corn imports by 2.4%, reaching 8.6 Mt in this new season.

Stocks

• Ending stocks are projected to decline by 8.7% globally, reaching 280.4 Mt. In the U.S., stocks are expected to fall by 11.7%, while China and Brazil are projected to see declines of 6.8% and 28.4%, respectively.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean meal exports are projected to reach a record high of 20.6 million metric tons for 2026/27 (+11% year-over-year), driven by a larger harvest and increased domestic crushing capacity. By the first week of the marketing year, outstanding sales had already exceeded 5.1 million metric tons, up from the same period last year, with the Philippines, Mexico, Canada, Colombia, and Vietnam as the main destination markets; Mexico, in particular, exceeded the five-year average for first-week sales by 147,000 metric tons.

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2026/27 crop year is expected to increase by 3.1% from the previous crop year, rising from 429.2 to 442.7 Mt.
• Estimates for South American harvests indicate a 3.0% increase for Brazil, which is expected to reach 186.0 Mt, while Argentina is projected to see a 1.4% increase, reaching 50.0 Mt.
• Paraguay is expected to see an 8.3% decline in its harvest compared to the 2025/26 crop year (12.1 Mt), resulting in a harvest of 11.1 Mt.
• The U.S. harvest is estimated at 124.1 Mt, which would represent a 7.1% increase compared to the previous season (116.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global soybean exports are expected to increase by 3.0% this marketing year, reaching 192.0 Mt.
• Exports are expected to be led by Brazil with 118.0 Mt, up 3.1% from the 2025/26 crop year (114.5 Mt), while the U.S. would reach an export volume of 46.1 Mt, representing an 11.8% increase compared to the previous season (41.2 Mt).
• Exports from Argentina are projected to total 6.5 Mt, a figure that represents a 27.5% decline compared to the previous period (8.9 Mt).

Imports

• Global soybean imports are expected to rise from 188.5 Mt in the 2025/26 marketing year to 190.8 Mt in this new marketing year, representing a 1.2% increase.
• China is expected to import 115.0 Mt, 1.8% higher than the previous marketing year (113.0 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 13.7 Mt, a 2.1% decrease compared to the previous marketing year (14.0 Mt).
• Mexico's imports are expected to total 6.8 Mt this season, representing a 2.1% decrease compared to the previous season (6.9 Mt).

Stocks

• Global ending soybean stocks are expected to decline slightly, totaling 124.3 Mt—0.5% below the previous season (124.9 Mt). In the U.S., stocks are projected to decline by just 0.1%, while in Argentina they are expected to increase by 1.7%. Brazil and China are projected to decline by 1.6% and 0.2%, respectively.

October 9, 2026/ 3tres3 Latin America with data from USDA.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov