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Pigmeat production on a declining trend
Although EU pigmeat production has increased in 2024 and 2025 (through a recovery in the breeding sow herd in 2024), intensive pigmeat production systems are likely to face further societal criticism in the coming years. EU pigmeat production is expected to be further reduced by both the implementation of stricter animal welfare and environmental laws in certain EU countries and declining export opportunities (especially due to lower demand from China). African Swine Fever (ASF) is assumed to be present in the EU, but no major or uncontrolled outbreaks are assumed.
Therefore, EU pigmeat production is projected to fall by 0.75% per year between now and 2035 (or by around 1.54 million t in 2035 compared with 2023-2025). However, this decline is not uniform. For example, production could decrease more strongly in western Europe (the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France), whereas production could still expand in Spain.
Negative prospects for pigmeat consumption
In the EU, environmental and societal concerns regarding pigmeat production could continue to reduce consumer appetite for pigmeat. Additionally, the relatively higher fat content of pigmeat compared with other meat types might be seen less favourably by some consumers. Despite pigmeat remaining the cheapest meat type, EU per capita pigmeat consumption is projected to decline from 23.3 kg a year to 21.8 kg a year by 2035 in line with the projections for a decline in EU supply.
In the last decade, the EU imported only a small amount of pigmeat (between 100 000 and 150 000 t per year) of which around 70% was from the UK. The historically declining trend in pigmeat imports is expected to continue, and reach a decline of 1.2% per year to 90 000 t between now and 2035.
Exports declining with lower Chinese demand
World demand for pigmeat imports is projected to remain stable at 10.5 million t between now and 2035. Production capacities in China and Vietnam are expected to recover during this time, leading to lower import demand from some of the main EU export markets, despite the expected continuation of ASF outbreaks. In contrast, there could be increased demand for imports in some regions in Africa and Asia (e.g. Malaysia). Over the period from 2025 to 2035, the UK could become the largest single export destination for EU pigmeat (replacing China) even though UK demand is expected to remain stable between now and 2035.
Lower Chinese pigmeat demand in the next decade could increase competition from the US, Canada and Brazil in other Asian markets. It is expected that EU pigmeat prices could stay at around EUR 2 000/t between now and 2035, at levels seen in the past, albeit still above Brazilian and Canadian producer prices. After a decline in exports in 2025, EU pigmeat exports could decrease by 1.0% per year by 2035 (a fall of -280 000 t). As a result, the EU’s share of global pigmeat exports could decline from 28.5% to 26%
December 16, 2025/ European Commission/ European Union.
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu
