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Cereals
The 2025/26 EU cereals gross production is estimated 4.1% above the 5-year average (at 285.4 million t). In 2025/26, good weather conditions for winter crops are observed so far in central and northern EU as well as the Iberian Peninsula, with particularly favourable conditions in some eastern EU countries. However, persistent drought in areas such as Beglium and France impacts spring and summer crops, while excessive rain affects winter crops in Italy. EU cereals area is forecast to increase by 2.4% in 2025/26 although remaining 2% below the 5-year average, driven by soft wheat and durum wheat, while maize, barley, and oats areas decrease slightly. Yield improvements are forecast for all cereals. EU soft wheat gross production is forecast at 129.2 million t (4.2% above the 5-year average), maize at 64.9 million t (3% above the 5-year average), and barley at 53.7 million t (5.1% above the 5-year average).
The world market outlook for 2025/26 depicts a rebound in wheat trade driven by rising global production and demand from Asia, while global maize trade is expected to see minimal growth due to low import demand. In 2025/26, the expected increased domestic production could result in an improved EU cereals trade balance. The exports are expected to increase by about 26% year-on-year (1.8% below the 5-year average). The imports are expected to decline by about 19% year-on-year (12% below the 5-year average), as the improved EU domestic production could fulfill a larger share of the domestic demand. By contrast, the 2024/25 EU cereals imports are to be about 17% above the 5-year average due to the lower domestic production. In 2025/26, domestic demand is not expected to change substantially from the previous year. Animal feed, the main outlet for domestic production, is expected to remain broadly stable, reflecting a rather stagnating EU animal production (except for poultry meat production). The use of cereals for industrial purposes is also expected to remain stable.
Oilseeds
The 2025/26 EU oilseeds production is forecast almost 12% higher year-on-year (4% above the 5-year average), at 31.2 million t. The recovery is driven by rapeseed and sunflower seed, while soybean seed production is forecast to decline. 2025/26 oilseeds area is expected to decline by about 1.5%, in particular sunflower and soybean seeds. The declining area is compensated by improving yields thanks to suitable weather conditions. EU protein crops production is forecast at 4.8 million t in 2025/26 (- 9% year-on-year, but 4% above the 5-year average). The production decline is expected to be driven by field peas and broad beans. In 2025/26, EU protein crops imports remain 3% below the 5-year average, while exports decline 2% below the 5-year average.
In 2025/26, the global oilseed production is expected to reach 692 million t (+ 2% year-on-year), driven by a recovery of sunflower seed production after a weak 2024/25, with notable expansions in the Black Sea region. The 2025/26 EU production of oilseed meals is expected to reach 29.9 million t (+4% year-on-year), in line with the increase of seeds production (+20% in sunflower meal production and +4% in rapeseed meal production). Soybean meal production is expected to remain quite stable at 11.5 million t. The 2025/26 EU production of vegetable oils is forecast at 16.3 million t (around + 6% year-on-year and 2% above the 5-year average). EU consumption of vegetable oils keeps following a declining trend (12% below the 5-year average) as use of palm oil (representing 12% of total vegetable oil use) continues its downward trend. The 2025/26 EU imports of vegetable oils are expected to decline (- 6% year-on-year) due to the anticipated reduction of palm oil imports and the higher domestic production of oilseeds. EU exports are forecast to remain in line with the 5-year average at about 2.6 million t in 2025/26.
July 2025/ Publications Office of the European Union/ European Union.
https://op.europa.eu
