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Global pig meat production is forecast to reach 126.3 million tonnes in 2025, up 1.0% from the previous year. Limited increase in sow inventories and ongoing African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks, particularly in parts of Asia and Europe, which continue to hinder disease control efforts, are expected to be offset by improved productivity and enhanced herd management efficiency, supporting global output growth.
In China, the world’s largest producer, output is anticipated to increase as producers speed up slaughter to address inventory oversupply, following the government’s decision to reduce the national sow herd by about 1 million head—from around 40.4 million to 39.5 million—to restore market balance and stabilize prices. Furthermore, the recent prohibition of “secondary fattening”, a practice whereby market-ready pigs are held or re-fattened beyond optimal slaughter weight in anticipation of higher prices, aims to curb market maneuvering and promote a more orderly downward adjustment of supplies.
Brazil, Russia, and Vietnam are expected to record output expansions, driven by increasing domestic and export demand.
Meanwhile, in the European Union, production is projected to increase only marginally, constrained by persistent animal health challenges and stringent environmental and welfare regulations that continue to limit herd recovery and prevent further expansion.
By contrast, the United States is anticipated to register a slight decline in production, reflecting a reduced number of slaughter-ready hogs due to disease outbreaks, notably Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), partly offset by heavier carcass weights resulting from lower feed costs.
World pig meat trade is forecast to reach 10.2 million tonnes in 2025, up 1.5% from the previous year.
Higher import demand is anticipated in the Philippines and Vietnam, where domestic production remains constrained by recurring ASF outbreaks.
Mexico’s imports are also projected to rise, reflecting stronger demand from the hotels, restaurants and institutions sector and consumer substitution from bovine to more affordable pig meat.
Similarly, Argentina is expected to register a marked increase in imports, driven by rising consumer interest and recent government measures that have streamlined import procedures and facilitated market access for foreign suppliers, resulting in a surge of import authorizations in recent months.
China’s imports are forecast to contract slightly, reflecting domestic oversupply of standard fresh cuts, processed pork, as well as primal cuts. This decline is partially offset by sustained demand for offal and specific pig meat products, which continues to support purchases for the processing and foodservice sectors. Following higher purchases in the first half of the year, ample domestic supplies and the provisional anti-dumping duties—ranging from 15.6 to 62.4%—imposed on pig meat from the European Union in September have curbed import volumes, pending the final outcome of the investigation expected by mid-December 2025.
Imports are anticipated to decline also in the Republic of Korea, as inflationary pressures prompt consumers to shift towards cheaper proteins, and in Japan, where high domestic inventories are expected to reduce import needs
Much of the global import demand is projected to be met by Brazil, whose exports are forecast to increase by around 15%, and by Russia, by more than 30%, supported by ample exportable supplies. By contrast, deliveries from the European Union and the United States are anticipated to decline amid weaker demand from key Asian destinations.
December 2, 2025/ FAO Meat Market Review: Emerging trends and outlook in 2025.
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