EU pork production to increase slightly amid mixed livestock outlook

Livestock producers faced a particularly difficult summer as heat and drought reduced grassland productivity and increased feed costs. Farmers also had to spend more on mitigation measures, including cooling systems and water management, raising overall production costs.

EU pigmeat production is expected to increase slightly, by 0.5% year on year. Export prospects remain mixed: total exports are projected to decline by 0.5%, as a sharp reduction in sales to China (-32%) is only partly offset by strong growth in exports to South Korea (+53%). African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are also affecting trade patterns and market confidence.

Beef production is forecast to decline by 2.2% year on year, reflecting continued herd adjustments and structural pressures in the sector. Exports are now expected to fall by 2%, although the reopening of the Turkish market has provided some support, with shipments to Turkey rising by 53%. Imports are projected to increase by 5%, notably due to a frontloading of Brazilian supplies.

The sheep and goat sector remains under pressure, with production projected to decline by 4.4% year on year. Live exports are expected to fall by 3%, while meat exports could increase by 5%, supported by demand from Algeria and the United Kingdom. Disease-related constraints in Romania continue to weigh on the sector.

The poultry sector remains the strongest performer among meat categories. Production is projected to rise by 3.3% year on year. Imports are set to grow by 17.1%, driven mainly by increased shipments from Brazil (+55%) and Ukraine (+23%). Exports are expected to increase more modestly, by 1%. The sector continues to face sanitary and trade-related uncertainty linked to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and associated restrictions.