South Africa: African swine fever threatens pork supply as prices could rise

South Africa could face higher pork prices as African swine fever (ASF) continues to affect pig farms in the Free State, North West, KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Gauteng. The outbreaks have reduced the number of pigs entering the formal market, with an estimated 7,000 pigs already lost, raising concerns over tightening supply. Industry estimates suggest that even a 2% reduction in available pork could push prices up by around 10%, while rising feed and production costs are placing additional pressure on farmers.
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‎Despite these concerns, consumers are currently benefiting from lower pork prices following a temporary oversupply. Earlier fears of shortages prompted processors to import pork, but the shipments arrived just as local farms resumed normal production after completing mandatory disease control restrictions, creating a short-term surplus in the market.
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‎As a result, wholesale pork prices have fallen significantly, leading to lower retail prices for products such as pork chops, boerewors and bacon. However, the industry expects prices to return closer to their long-term average, with continued ASF outbreaks and increasing production costs posing a risk of future price increases. Authorities and producers have stressed that ASF does not affect humans, pork sold through formal retailers remains safe to eat, and strong biosecurity measures remain essential to protect the country's pork supply.