Corn and Soybeans: USDA projections for the 2025/2026 marketing year – April 2026

These are the highlights of the USDA’s grain and oilseed estimates for the 2025/26 marketing year, released on April 9:

Corn

Production

• Global corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to reach approximately 1,301.1 million metric tons (Mt), representing a 5.7% increase from the 2024/25 marketing year, last estimated at 1,231.4 Mt.
• United States production is expected to reach 432.3 Mt, up 14.3% from the previous season (378.3 Mt). China’s harvest is projected to increase by 2.1% to 301.2 Mt. Meanwhile, the European Union is expected to see a 4.7% decline to 56.8 Mt, and Ukraine, with 30.7 Mt, would see a 14.6% increase compared to the 26.8 Mt reported in the previous season.
• Brazil's production is expected to reach 132.0 Mt, down 2.9% from the 2024/25 season (136.0 Mt), while Argentina’s harvest is projected to be around 52.0 Mt, up 4.0% from the previous season (50.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global corn exports are expected to rise by 10.8% this marketing year, reaching 207.3 million metric tons.

• The United States is expected to lead in exports with 83.8 million metric tons, representing a 15.5% increase over the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 43.0, 37.0, and 22.0 million metric tons, respectively.

Imports

• Globally, corn imports are expected to rise from 186.2 million metric tons in the 2024/25 marketing year to 193.1 million metric tons in the current marketing year, representing a 3.7% increase.
• Mexico is expected to be the largest importer of corn, with 26.3 million metric tons, representing a 1.4% increase compared to the previous marketing year (25.9 million metric tons).
• China is expected to increase its demand for imported corn by 338.8%, reaching 8.0 million metric tons for this new marketing year. The European Union is projected to import 19.5 million metric tons, representing a 4.0% increase compared to the 2024/25 marketing year (18.8 million metric tons).
• Japan and Vietnam are expected to import 15.5 and 13.5 Mt, respectively, representing increases of 0.3% and 12.5%.
• Colombia is expected to increase its corn imports by 7.2%, reaching 8.0 million metric tons in this new season.

Stocks

• Global ending stocks are projected to decline by 0.5%, reaching 294.8 Mt. In the United States, stocks are expected to rise by 37.1%, while in Brazil and China, they are projected to fall by 46.0% and 6.1%, respectively.

Soybeans

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2025/26 crop year is expected to remain virtually unchanged from the previous season, at 427.4 million metric tons.
• Forecasts for South American harvests indicate a 4.3% increase for Brazil, which is expected to reach 180.0 Mt, while Argentina is projected to see a 6.1% decline, reaching 48.0 Mt.
• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 17.6% compared to the 2024/25 season (10.2 Mt), reaching a total harvest of 12.0 Mt.

• The harvest in the United States is estimated at 116.0 million metric tons, representing a 2.6% decrease from the previous season (119.0 million metric tons).

Exports

• Global soybean exports are expected to rise by 1.6% this marketing year, reaching 187.2 million metric tons.
• Exports are expected to be led by Brazil with 115.0 Mt, a figure that would be 11.5% higher than that recorded in the 2024/25 season (103.1 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 41.9 Mt, representing a 18.2% decrease compared to the previous season (51.2 Mt).

• Argentina's exports are projected to reach 8.3 Mt, a 4.8% increase from the previous period (7.9 Mt).

Imports

• Global soybean imports are expected to rise from 179.2 million metric tons in the 2024/25 marketing year to 185.6 million metric tons in the current marketing year, representing a 3.6% increase.
• China is expected to import 112.0 million metric tons, 3.7% higher than the total for the previous marketing year (108.0 million metric tons). The European Union is expected to import 14.0 million metric tons, representing a 4.8% decrease (14.7 million metric tons).
• For Mexico, imports are expected to reach 6.7 million metric tons this season, representing a 4.1% increase over the previous season (6.4 million metric tons).

Stocks

• Global ending stocks of oilseeds are expected to remain virtually unchanged at 124.8 million metric tons. In the United States, stocks are projected to increase by 7.7%. In Brazil, they are expected to remain unchanged at 37.7 million metric tons.