What to expect from the Chinese swine industry in 2026

Swine production in China is expected to remain stable in 2026 with a pig crop of 709,500 thousand head. Although sow inventories during the first four months of 2025 were higher than the same period in 2024, expectations of weaker hog prices in the second half of the year may squeeze producer margins, accelerating the exit of smallholders and discouraging sow replenishment. The average sow inventory for 2025 is expected to remain roughly unchanged year-over-year, laying the foundation for stable swine production in 2026.

A moderate year-on-year increase in breeding swine imports in 2026 is forecast, following a lower base in 2025. Large-scale swine producers continue to prioritize genetic improvement as part of efforts to raise pigs per sow per year, driving persistent demand for high-quality breeding stock. As China’s domestic core breeding system remains under development, imports will continue to play a critical role in herd genetic renewal.

Pork production in 2026 is expected to hold steady at 57,150 thousand MT CWE, with stable piglet output supporting supply while lower carcass weights and flat demand constrain further gains. Slaughter is expected at 703,800 thousand head.

Pork imports in 2026 are forecast at 1,300 thousand MT CWE, a modest decline on weaker demand and ample domestic supply. Traders are cautious amid slower market movement and high cold storage inventories.