AMIS: much higher world stocks in 2014 for maize, wheat, rice and soybean

According to the March 2014 Market Monitor for the Agricultural Market Information System, while possible slowing down of grain exports from Ukraine because of escalated geopolitical tensions is a concern in the short term, bumper crops in several major producing countries are likely to boost supplies and to result in much higher world stocks in 2014 for maize, wheat, rice and soybean.The early outlook for wheat crops to be harvested in 2014 is positive. The soybean supply situation remains favourable even if conditions in South America deteriorated in recent weeks due to adverse weather.

• Wheat production estimate for 2013 raised by 2 million tonnes on larger crops than anticipated in Australia.
• Utilization in 2013/14 decreased, reflecting downward adjustments to feed use in China and the EU.
• Trade forecast for 2013/14 raised, owing to larger imports by Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Egypt.
• Stocks (ending in 2014) to increase more than earlier anticipated due mostly to higher build-up of inventories in Asia.
  
• Maize production estimate for 2013 raised, mostly on higher production in China and the US.
• Utilization to increase significantly in 2013/14, sustained by strong growth in feed use.
• Trade forecast in 2013/14 up from 2012/13, boosted by lower prices and large export availabilities.
• Stocks (ending in 2014) to build up, mainly driven by a recovery in the US.
  
• Soybeans production in 2013/14 forecast trimmed by 6 million tonnes, mostly reflecting lower estimates for key South American producers on unfavourable weather.
• Utilization in 2013/14 to expand less than previously forecast, mirroring downward corrections in global supplies. Year-on-year (y/y) growth to remain at an above-average 5.3 %.
• Trade in 2013/14 raised slightly, with higher export forecasts for US and Brazil offsetting lower estimates for Argentina and Paraguay. Global trade to surge by 13 % from 2012/13.
• Stock forecast (2013/14 carry-out) adjusted downwards on revised crop prospects for South America, but still allowing a 10 % recovery y/y.