Mexico: pork production forecasts

According to USDA, Mexican beef and pork production forecasts are slightly higher in 2014 as affordable grain prices and improved climate conditions are helping the sector continue to recover.

Production:

• The new Post 2014 Mexican pork production forecast is 1.295 MMT CWE slightly up from the official USDA data, due to the continued incorporation of new breeding lines, better farm management techniques, and increasing slaughter weights that have allowed production of more meat from fewer hogs.
• Despite PED, Post is forecasting slightly higher production in 2014 and revised its 2013 estimate greater as swine operations are carrying animals to heavier weights and continuing to introduce better genetics. Industry sources report that swine continue to be slaughtered at around 115 kg live weight with a carcass weight of around 82 kg. These members report that swine are held in feed lot operations for around 50 days.
• As previously reported, spokespersons for the Mexican pork sector report that pork producers in the states of Sonora and Sinaloa have been requested to supply specific Asian markets with pork meat from animals exclusively fed on wheat but given current low prices for yellow corn this appears to be done only upon request.

Consumption:

• The Post 2014 total pork consumption estimate is 1.96 MMT CWE slightly lower that the official USDA figure as imports are expected slightly lower than the USDA forecast and competition with poultry prices has led to relatively stable, albeit growing, demand.

Trade:

• The Post 2014 import forecast is 790,000 MT CWE slightly down from the official USDA data based on the slight increase in production, the sustained demand from the processing sector for picnic and hams, as well as for other cuts or mechanically deboned meat that has a competitive price in Mexico.
• The Post pork export estimate for 2014 is raised slightly from the USDA official forecast to 125,000 MT CWE as the country looks actively to open export markets and expand its share of exports to Asian markets; like Japan.Japan remains Mexico’s number one export market by volume and value and it’s not expected to change. Pork meat exports to Japan and the United States are mostly loin whereas exports to South Korea consist of bone-in pork.