African swine fever in the Russian Federation: Spatio-temporal analysis and epidemiological overview

Having been introduced into the Russian Federation in 2007 African swine fever has spread widely in the southern region of the country and since 2011 has demonstrated a tendency to form a secondary endemic zone in the central part of the country. In the present study spatio-temporal patterns of ASF diffusion in the populations of wild and domestic pigs are analyzed.

The structure of the domestic swine population is conventionally divided into a sub-population at low biosecurity (77% of the total number of outbreaks in domestic pigs) and a population at high biosecurity (23%).

The use of geo-information technologies (GIS) enabled confirmation of the conclusion that an epidemic center has shifted into the central part of Russia.

The main conclusions of this study are that: (1) anthropogenic factors play the leading role in the spread of ASF across the territory of the RF; (2) small-scale private holdings (low biosecurity population) are more exposed to ASF virus introduction; (3) there is a high risk of diffusion of ASFV from the secondary endemic zone in the central part of the RF to neighboring regions.