World pork production virtually flat as high feed costs temper growth

According to the latest "Livestock and Poultry: World Market and Trade" from USDA, global pork production is forecast nominally higher to a record 104.7 million tons. Rising feed costs, which shrink profit margins, will only be partially offset by improving efficiencies and intervening government programs in some countries.

• China, accounting for nearly half of world production, is forecast 1 percent higher to a record 52.0 million tons. Poor hog prices in 2012 slowed expansion of swine production facilities and further encouraged small-scale producers to exit the industry. This is expected to result in nominally lower breeding stock in 2013 and only a slight growth in hogs available for slaughter. However, production efficiencies continue to improve as large and modern farms expand at a faster pace than the exit of backyard operations.
• Brazil’s production is expected to grow 2 percent, to a record 3.3 million tons, supported mostly by strong international demand and producer optimism for continued recovery in export markets.
• Russia is expected to increase production by 1 percent to 2.1 million tons. Large farms are increasing production through economies of size and scale, supported by government programs.
• EU production is expected to ease by 1 percent to 22.6 million tons as the industry copes with rising feed costs and stringent EU animal husbandry requirements. These requirements are resulting in a restructuring of the industry, with the most inefficient commercial farms exiting production.
• The United States is forecast down 1 percent to 10.4 million tons as high feed costs are expected to dampen production through reductions in farrowing and lighter slaughter weights as producers attempt to minimize feed costs. Only modest reductions to the breeding stock are forecast, leaving swine producers prepared to accelerate pig production in the latter part of 2013, when the feed grain outlook is expected to be better.
• Canada’s production is lowered 1 percent to 1.8 million tons as high feed costs and reduced demand for feeder hogs in the United States are expected to adversely impact the recovery in the hog sector.
• Japan’s output is projected down 1 percent to 1.3 million tons. Reduced breeding stock leads to a smaller pig crop.
• Mexico’s production is expected to fall 1 percent to 1.2 million tons. Hog producers continue to improve efficiency through the incorporation of new breeding lines that are better able to adapt to the Mexican production system and enhanced farm management techniques, mitigating the decline in sow numbers.
• South Korea is forecast 2 percent lower to 1.1 million tons as producer margins are squeezed by record high feed grain prices. Other factors dampening production are regulations for hog operations including provincial laws designating areas restricted from livestock production, animal space requirements, stricter requirements for manure disposal, FMD vaccination requirements, and traceability.