Canada - Government releases first grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011/2012
http://www.agr.gc.ca/pol/mad-dam/index_e.php?s1=pubs&s2=go-co&s3=php&page=go-co_2011-01-28
17-Feb-2011 (15 years 3 months 21 days ago)For 2010-11, total exports are forecast to be slightly lower than 2009-10 due to lower exports of wheat (ex-durum), canola, oats and flaxseed. Total domestic use is forecast to increase due to higher feed use of corn in eastern Canada, higher feed wheat use in western Canada and increased canola crush in western Canada. Total carry-out stocks are expected to be well-below the 10 year average. Grain prices are expected to average significantly higher than 2009-10, partly due to weather related production problems in many key exporting countries and strong demand from China.
For 2011-12, the areas seeded to all crops, except rye and mixed grains, are forecast to rise due to the expected decline in area in summerfallow, assuming that a major portion of the area which was too wet to seed in western Canada in 2010 will be seeded. Normal precipitation, abandonment and crop quality are assumed. For all crops, yields are expected to return to trend levels. Total production of G&O in Canada is forecast to increase by about 7% to 66.0 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is forecast to decrease slightly to 79.6 Mt, as lower carry-in stocks largely offset the rise in production. Exports are forecast to drop slightly, while total domestic use increases marginally. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease slightly and remain below the 10 year average. Prices are expected to decline, but remain historically high, under pressure by the strong Canadian dollar which is forecast to be near par with the US dollar. The main factors to watch are: the strength of Chinese demand, growing conditions across South America, planting intentions for the United States and spring moisture conditions.
For 2011-12, the areas seeded to all crops, except rye and mixed grains, are forecast to rise due to the expected decline in area in summerfallow, assuming that a major portion of the area which was too wet to seed in western Canada in 2010 will be seeded. Normal precipitation, abandonment and crop quality are assumed. For all crops, yields are expected to return to trend levels. Total production of G&O in Canada is forecast to increase by about 7% to 66.0 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is forecast to decrease slightly to 79.6 Mt, as lower carry-in stocks largely offset the rise in production. Exports are forecast to drop slightly, while total domestic use increases marginally. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease slightly and remain below the 10 year average. Prices are expected to decline, but remain historically high, under pressure by the strong Canadian dollar which is forecast to be near par with the US dollar. The main factors to watch are: the strength of Chinese demand, growing conditions across South America, planting intentions for the United States and spring moisture conditions.