Vietnam - Future scenarios for pig sector development: Results from a policy simulation model
http://mahider.ilri.org/bitstream/10568/2467/1/Future_scenarios_for_pig.pdf
20-Oct-2010 (15 years 7 months 18 days ago)The modern large-scale pig sector is growing rapidly, due to rising income, urbanization, and the proliferation of supermarkets.
However, it remains small: about 5% of pig production comes from growers with more than 100 pigs.
Simulations suggest that, under plausible assumptions, the market share of the modern pig sector will grow from 5% to 7% over the next ten years. Under extreme assumptions, it may reach 12%.
Under all scenarios considered, the traditional small-scale pig sector continues to grow over the next decade and beyond.
Improved technology for small-scale farmers would contribute to higher growth for the sector and lower prices for consumers.
It is likely that growing feed demand will lead to significant maize imports in the future, but improved maize technology will delay and reduce the need to import.
However, it remains small: about 5% of pig production comes from growers with more than 100 pigs.
Simulations suggest that, under plausible assumptions, the market share of the modern pig sector will grow from 5% to 7% over the next ten years. Under extreme assumptions, it may reach 12%.
Under all scenarios considered, the traditional small-scale pig sector continues to grow over the next decade and beyond.
Improved technology for small-scale farmers would contribute to higher growth for the sector and lower prices for consumers.
It is likely that growing feed demand will lead to significant maize imports in the future, but improved maize technology will delay and reduce the need to import.