USDA corn and soybeans projections 2026/2027 – September 2026

The international corn market is going through a period of tension: cuts to U.S. harvest forecasts are compounded by disrupted maritime exports from Ukraine following attacks on its port infrastructure, which has sharply driven up export prices across all origins. Meanwhile, soybeans continue to show strong production prospects in Brazil and the United States, although increased industrial use of soybean oil in both countries is limiting export growth, while prices are skyrocketing due to the drought affecting U.S. crops.

Corn

Recent attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure have disrupted its maritime corn exports, with no prices reported since September 1. This situation, combined with forecasts of a smaller U.S. harvest, has sent export prices soaring across all origins—the United States rose by $30/metric ton to $252/metric ton; Brazil, by $16/metric ton; and Argentina, by $13/metric ton—although Argentina remains the most competitive origin in the market.

Production

• Global corn production for the 2026/27 crop year is expected to be around 1,291.0 million metric tons (Mt), a 3.0% decline from the 2025/26 crop year, last estimated at 1,330.8 Mt.
• United States production is expected to reach 401.3 Mt, down 7.2% from the previous crop year (432.3 Mt). China’s harvest is projected to increase by 1.9%, to 307.0 Mt. Meanwhile, production in the European Union is expected to decline by 10.9% to 50.6 Mt. Ukraine, with 31.8 Mt, would see a 2.9% increase compared to the 30.9 Mt from the previous crop year.
• In South America, Brazil's production is expected to reach 139.0 Mt, down 1.4% from the 2025/26 crop year (141.0 Mt), while Argentina's harvest is projected to be around 55.0 Mt, down 12.7% from the previous crop year (63.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global corn exports are expected to decline by 3.7% in the new marketing year, to 210.1 Mt.
• The United States is expected to lead exports with 83.2 Mt, although this volume would be 4.4% lower than the previous marketing year (87.0 Mt). Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine would follow with 43.0, 38.0, and 22.0 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• Globally, corn imports are expected to rise from 196.3 Mt in the 2025/26 marketing year to 203.1 Mt in the new marketing year, representing a 3.5% increase.
• Mexico is expected to be the largest importer of corn, with 27.2 Mt, representing a 2.6% increase over the previous crop year (26.5 Mt).
• The European Union is expected to reach 23.5 Mt, up 23.7% from the previous marketing year (19.0 Mt); Japan is expected to maintain its purchases at 15.5 Mt, while Vietnam is expected to increase its purchases by 12.6%, reaching 15.2 Mt (13.5 Mt in the previous marketing year).
• Colombia is expected to increase its corn imports by 2.4%, reaching 8.6 Mt in the new crop year.

Final stocks

• Ending stocks are projected to decline by 9.7% globally, to 272.1 Mt. In the United States, they are expected to fall by 18.5%, while in China and Brazil, they are projected to decline by 6.8% and 28.4%, respectively.

Soybeans

This month’s featured article in the oilseeds report focuses on rapeseed and sunflower oils as drivers of global vegetable oil trade in 2026/27. Soybean oil—which, together with palm oil, accounts for nearly two-thirds of global consumption—is expected to make a much more limited contribution: its exports are projected to grow by only 1% despite a sharp increase in soybean production, driven by higher industrial use in the United States and Brazil. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean export prices exceeded $525 per metric ton for the first time since November 2023, driven by drought in U.S. producing regions and a deterioration in crop conditions compared to last year.

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to increase by 3.0% compared to the previous marketing year, rising from 429.4 to 442.3 Mt.
• Forecasts for South American harvests point to a 3.0% increase in Brazil, to 186.0 Mt, while in Argentina, production is expected to rise by 1.0%, to 50.0 Mt.
• Paraguay's harvest is expected to decline by 8.3% compared to the 2025/26 crop year (12.1 Mt), to 11.1 Mt.
• In the United States, the harvest is projected to reach 123.4 Mt, a 6.4% increase over the previous crop year (116.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global soybean exports are expected to rise by 2.3% in the new crop year, reaching 191.6 Mt.
• Brazil is expected to lead exports with 118.0 Mt, up 2.6% from the 2025/26 marketing year (115.0 Mt), while the United States is projected to reach a volume of 45.9 Mt, representing a 10.9% increase over the previous marketing year (41.4 Mt).
• Exports from Argentina are projected to total 6.5 Mt, down 28.3% from the previous marketing year (9.0 Mt).

Imports

• Global soybean imports are expected to rise from 187.8 Mt in the 2025/26 crop year to 190.4 Mt in the new crop year, representing a 1.4% increase.
• China is expected to import 115.0 Mt, 1.8% more than in the previous marketing year (113.0 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 13.7 Mt, representing a 2.1% decrease from the previous marketing year (14.0 Mt).
• Mexico's imports are projected to reach 6.8 Mt, up 0.7% from the previous marketing year (6.7 Mt).

Ending stocks

• Global ending soybean stocks are expected to decline slightly to 124.0 Mt, down 1.0% from the previous marketing year (125.3 Mt). In the United States, they are expected to fall by 4.7%, while in Argentina they are expected to rise by 1.7%. Brazil and China are projected to see declines of 2.1% and 0.2%, respectively.