FEFAC initial assessment of drought impact on EU feed supply chains and possible mitigation measures

The most severe impacts on the feed supply chains are the shortage of forages and summer crops, which mainly affect the cattle population, with farmers forced to already start feeding winter silage/forages increasing feed insecurity. The expected substantial shortfall in EU maize production will further exacerbate pressure on the feed supply chain in the coming months, reducing availability of both maize silage and maize grain on the EU market.

At this stage, FEFAC market experts expect an additional import need for the EU in the new marketing year of more than 7 mio. tons of maize, leading to a total EU import estimate of more than 26 mio. tons (main origins: Ukraine, USA, Brazil). This situation also requires facilitating access to feed grains from other Third Countries to diversify the sourcing.

A lower forage harvest means also increasing the EU feed protein deficit, including for organic feed materials. This will lead to additional pressure and demand on import of soy products used in feed. FEFAC’s latest EUDR trade disruption and economic impact assessment indicates additional direct feed sourcing costs for soy products of more than 1 bio. € for 2027, with no guarantees on sufficient market availability to meet expected increased EU import demand (35 mio. tons in 2025). This is economically unviable for EU livestock farmers in the context of depressed prices for most livestock products.

This exceptional situation, already considered worse than the last major EU heat wave recorded in 2018, calls for exceptional measures to help facilitate the EU feed supply chain’s coordinated efforts to alleviate pressure on the supply of essential feed grains and forages. FEFAC members are fully engaged in assisting and supporting downstream value chain partner efforts, ensuring feed and food security and business continuity at the livestock farm level, while safeguarding animal welfare through adaptation of diet formulations to cope with heat stress. However, further contingency measures are urgently required at EU level to help mitigate and prevent the growing risk of disruption of essential feed supplies, particularly in the ruminant sector.

In FEFAC's view, the drought situation calls in particular for initiating again the full range of EU crisis mitigation measures released in 2022 as part of the response to the combined effects of the COVID crisis the direct impact of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, which led to a severe disruption and shortfall in the availability of feed grains, in particular maize, for which the EU faces a structural deficit.