U.S. hog slaughter expected to remain lower through H2 2026

Hog markets were below expectations in the second quarter of 2026 due to larger hog supplies and disappointing pork demand. Favorable growing conditions and ample market-ready hog inventories pressured prices during the quarter, although markets have begun to stabilize entering the third quarter of 2026.

Weekly slaughter in July averaged 3% below year-ago levels. Part of the decline reflects the long-awaited reduction in hog availability from earlier disease losses, while planned plant maintenance during the seasonally slower period also contributed. While Rabobank expects slaughter to gradually rebound, they continue to forecast below year-ago slaughter levels through the second half of 2026. To help offset tighter hog supplies and maintain pork production, producers are marketing hogs at heavier weights.

Despite the modest decline in market-ready hogs, producers have maintained the sow herd and are relying on productivity gains to increase supply growth rather than herd expansion. Disease risk, export uncertainty and cautious consumer demand continue to limit expansion plans.