Rabobank Q3 report: Global pork markets remain under pressure, but rebalancing is underway

Global pork prices remain weak due to stagnant demand and oversupply. Sentiment is subdued across major producing regions, as prices across regions generally stay lower than the previous years. The key reason is the excess supply, although the causes vary by region.

• In China, supply has expanded due to capacity expansion and productivity gains over the past five years.
• In Europe, pork prices stay low as Spain’s exports continue to be constrained by its African swine fever status, leaving more pork to be absorbed within the regional market. In addition, Europe’s pork production has risen, which also contributes to pressured prices.
• In North America, supply is modestly higher than last year, while demand remains weak. Across the regions, productivity improvement plays an important role in the supply growth, as producers have been focusing on cost and efficiency.

Looking ahead, the ongoing decline in China’s sow herd is expected to lead to reduced supply, starting in mid/late Q3. However, any price recovery in China is likely to be modest given the still-weak demand. North America will also likely see some improvement in Q4 if not earlier than that.

Trade is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, although structural shifts are ongoing. Export patterns are shifting, as Europe’s market share has declined following disease issues and weaker demand from China, and Brazil has expanded share rapidly. Meanwhile, import patterns are also evolving, with Mexico and the Philippines significantly increasing imports, and China reducing volume. Trade remains vulnerable to disease developments, geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy adjustments. While the USMCA remains fully in force, the US’ decision not to extend the agreement increases uncertainty on investment decisions across North America but has limited near-term trade implications. The Philippines officially lifted a nationwide ban on pork imports from Spain. China’s antidumping duties on EU pork imports, combined with the excessive supply in China, resulted in a decline of 29% in the first five months. All of these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in the second half of 2026.