USDA corn and soybean projections for 2026/2027 – June 2026

These are the highlights from the USDA’s grain and oilseed estimates for the 2026/27 marketing year, released on June 11, 2026:

Corn

Production

• Global corn production for the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to be around 1,300.4 million metric tons (Mt), representing a 2.0% decline from the 2025/26 marketing year, last estimated at 1,326.7 Mt.
• In the United States, production is expected to reach 406.3 Mt, a 6.0% decline from the previous crop year (432.3 Mt). China’s harvest is projected to increase by 1.9% to 307.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 1.2% increase to 57.5 Mt, and Ukraine, with 30.0 Mt, is forecast to see a 2.9% decline from the 30.9 Mt in the previous season.
• Among South American crops, Brazil is expected to reach 139.0 Mt, a 0.7% increase compared to the 2025/26 season (138.0 Mt), while Argentina’s harvest is projected to be around 55.0 Mt, 9.8% below the previous season (61.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global corn exports are expected to decline by 4.3% this marketing year, reaching 207.6 Mt.
• The United States is expected to lead in exports with 80.0 Mt, representing a 5.3% decline from the previous marketing year (84.5 Mt), followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 44.0, 38.0, and 23.0 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• Globally, corn imports are expected to rise from 197.6 Mt in the 2025/26 marketing year to 199.6 Mt in this new marketing year, representing a 1.0% increase.
• Mexico is expected to be the largest importer of corn, with 27.7 Mt, representing a 2.6% increase over the previous crop year (27.0 Mt).
• The European Union is projected to reach 19.5 Mt, a 5.4% increase compared to the 2025/26 season (18.5 Mt), while Japan is expected to remain unchanged at 15.5 Mt. Vietnam is projected to see a 12.6% increase compared to the previous season (13.5 Mt), reaching 15.2 Mt.
• Colombia is expected to increase its corn imports by 2.4%, reaching 8.6 Mt in this new season.

Stocks

• Global ending stocks are expected to decline by 7.3%, reaching 281.2 Mt. In the United States, stocks are expected to fall by 8.6%, while China and Brazil are projected to see declines of 6.7% and 9.8%, respectively.

Soybeans

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2026/27 crop year is expected to reach a new high of 441.3 Mt, representing a 2.8% increase over the previous crop year (429.2 Mt).
• Estimates for South American harvests point to a 3.3% increase in Brazil, which is expected to reach 186.0 Mt, while production in Argentina is expected to remain at 50.0 Mt, unchanged from the previous season.
• Paraguay is expected to reduce its production by 8.3% compared to the 2025/26 crop year (12.1 Mt), bringing it down to 11.1 Mt.
• In the United States, the harvest is estimated at 120.7 Mt, which would represent a 4.1% increase over the previous season (116.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global soybean exports are expected to increase by 1.3% this marketing year, reaching 189.2 Mt.
• Exports are expected to be led by Brazil with 117.5 Mt, up 2.2% from the 2025/26 season (115.0 Mt), while the United States is projected to reach 44.4 Mt, representing a 7.9% increase over the previous season (41.1 Mt).
• Exports from Argentina are projected to total 6.2 Mt, a 31.1% decrease from the previous season (9.0 Mt).

Imports

• Global soybean imports are expected to rise from 185.0 Mt in the 2025/26 marketing year to 188.0 Mt in this new marketing year, representing a 1.6% increase.
• China is expected to import 114.0 Mt, up 1.8% from the previous marketing year (112.0 Mt), while the European Union is projected to import 13.2 Mt, down 4.3% from the previous marketing year (13.8 Mt).
• Mexico's imports are expected to total 6.8 Mt this season, representing a 0.7% increase over the previous season (6.7 Mt).

Stocks

• Global ending stocks of soybeans are expected to decline slightly to 124.9 Mt, 0.5% below the previous season (125.5 Mt). In the United States, stocks are expected to decline by 8.7%, while China and Brazil are projected to see declines of 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Argentina would be the exception, with a 1.7% increase in its ending stocks.