Corn and soybeans: First USDA projections for the 2026/2027 season – May 2026

These are the highlights of the grain and oilseed estimates for the 2026/27 season published by the USDA on May 9, 2026:

Corn

Production

• Global corn production for the 2026/27 season is expected to be around 1295.4 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 1.3% from the 2025/26 season, last estimated at 1312.7 Mt.
• U.S. production would reach 406.3 Mt, down 6.0% from the previous season (432.3 Mt), while China would increase its harvest by 1.9%, reaching 307.0 Mt. Meanwhile, the EU would grow by 1.2% to reach 57.5 Mt, and Ukraine, with 30.0 Mt, would see a 2.9% decrease compared to the 30.9 Mt in the previous season.
• In South America, Brazil would reach 139.0 Mt, up 3.0% from the 2025/26 season (135.0 Mt), while Argentina's harvest would be around 55.0 Mt, 6.8% below the previous season (59.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global corn exports are expected to decrease by 3.1% in this new season, consolidating 206.9 Mt.
• The U.S. would lead export activity with 80.0 Mt, although this would be a 4.5% decrease from the previous season (83.8 Mt). Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine would follow with 44.0, 38.0, and 23.0 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• Globally, corn imports are forecast to increase 1.4% from 195.9 Mt in the 2025/26 season to 198.6 Mt in this new season.
• Mexico would be the largest importer of corn with 27.0 Mt and a 2.7% growth compared to the previous season (26.3 Mt).
• The EU is expected to import 19.5 Mt, up 5.4% from the 2025/26 season (18.5 Mt), while Japan would remain stable at 15.5 Mt and Vietnam would grow by 12.6%, reaching 15.2 Mt in this new season.
• Colombia's corn imports would increase by 2.4%, reaching 8.6 Mt in this new season.

Stocks

• Ending stocks are expected to decrease by 6.5% globally, reaching 277.5 Mt. U.S. stocks would decrease by 8.6%, while China's and Argentina's would decrease by 6.7% and 7.7% respectively.

Soybeans

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2026/27 season would reach a new high of 441.5 Mt, a 3.3% growth compared to the previous season (427.6 Mt).
• Estimates for South American harvests indicate a 3.3% increase for Brazil, reaching 186.0 Mt, while for Argentina an increase of 4.2% is estimated, reaching 50.0 Mt.
• Paraguay would see 8.3% decrease compared to the 2025/26 season (12.1 Mt), consolidating a harvest of 11.1 Mt.
• For the U.S., a harvest of 120.7 Mt is expected, which would mean a 4.1% growth compared to the previous season (116.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global soybean exports are expected to increase by 1.4% in this new season, reaching 189.2 Mt.
• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 117.5 Mt, a figure 2.2% higher than the 2025/26 season (115.0 Mt), while the U.S. would reach an export volume of 44.4 Mt, indicating a 6.5% growth compared to the previous season (41.6 Mt).
• Argentina's exports are projected at 6.0 Mt, a figure that represents a decrease of 27.3% compared to the previous season (8.3 Mt).

Imports

• Global soybean imports would increase from 184.8 Mt in the 2025/26 season to 188.0 Mt in this new season, an increase of 1.8%.
• China is expected to import 114.0 Mt, up 1.8% from the previous season (112.0 Mt), while the EU would reach 13.2 Mt, a decrease of 4.3%.
• Mexico's imports are expected to reach 6.8 Mt this season, up 0.7% compared to the previous season (6.7 Mt).

Stocks

• Global ending stocks of soybeans are expected to decline slightly, reaching 124.8 Mt, 0.3% lower than the previous season (125.1 Mt). U.S. stocks are projected to decrease by 8.7%, while Argentina's are expected to increase by 2.6%. China and Brazil are expected to show contractions of 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.