USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2025/2026 season – February 2026

This latest report shows a rebound in global corn production, with the United States, China, and Argentina leading the increases, while Brazil and the European Union are registering declines. Global exports are expanding strongly, led by the United States, and international demand is growing, driven by Mexico, the European Union, Vietnam, and a marked increase in purchases by China. For soybeans, the outlook is more stable: Brazil is consolidating its leadership with larger harvests and exports, while the United States is reducing production and foreign sales. International demand remains firm, with China as the main buyer, and global stocks show a slight recovery.

Corn

Production

• Global corn production for the 2025/26 season is expected to be around 1295.9 million tons (Mt), a 5.3% increase compared to 2024/25, last estimated at 1230.6 Mt.
• United States production is estimated to reach 432.3 million tons, up 14.3% from the previous season (378.3 million tons). China is forecast to increase its harvest by 2.1%, reaching 301.2 million tons. Meanwhile, the European Union would decrease by 3.5% to 57.0 million tons. Ukraine, with 29.0 million tons, would register an increase of 8.2% compared to the 26.8 million tons achieved in the previous season.
• Brazil's production is expected to reach 131 Mt, down 3.7% from the 2024/25 season (136 Mt). Argentina's harvest would be around 53 Mt, 6.0% above the previous season (50 Mt).

Exports

• Global corn exports are forecast to increase 10.4% in this new season, consolidating 206.6 Mt.
• The United States would lead export activity with 83.8 Mt, up 15.5% from the previous year, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 43, 37, and 22 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• Global corn imports are expected to increase 3.2% from 186.1 Mt in 2024/25 to 192.1 Mt in this new year.
• Mexico would be the largest importer of corn with 26.3 Mt and 1.4% growth compared to the previous season.
• China is expected to increase its demand for imported corn by 338.8% to reach 8 Mt in the new season. The European Union is forecast to import 19.5 Mt, an increase of 4.0% compared to the 2024/25 season (18.8 Mt).
• Japan and Vietnam would import 15.5 and 13.0 Mt, respectively, representing growth of 0.3% and 8.3,% respectively.
• Colombia would increase its corn imports by 7.2%, reaching 8.0 Mt in this new season.

Stocks

• Ending stocks would decrease by 1.8% globally, reaching 289.0 Mt. For the United States, stocks would increase by 37.1%, while for Brazil, they would decrease by 65.2%.

Soybeans

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 0.2% compared to the previous season, going from 427.2 to 428.2 Mt.
• Estimates for South American harvests indicate a 5.0% increase for Brazil to reach 180 Mt, while for Argentina, a 5.1% decrease is estimated (48.5 Mt).
• Paraguay would increase its production by 12.7% compared to 2024/25 (10.2 Mt), consolidating a harvest of 11.5 Mt.
• The United States harvest is estimated at 116.0 Mt, a 2.6% decrease compared to the previous season (119.0 Mt).

Exports

• Global soybean exports are expected to increase by 1.8% in this new season, consolidating 187.6 Mt.
• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 114.0 Mt, up 10.5% from 2024/25, while the United States would export 42.9 Mt, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous season (51.2 Mt).
• Argentina's exports are projected at 8.3 Mt, an increase of 4.8% compared to the previous season (7.9 Mt).
• Paraguay would increase its exports by 20.2%, going from 6.4 Mt in 2024/25 to 7.7 Mt in this new season.

Imports

• Global soybean imports are forecast to increase by 3.6%, going from 179.5 Mt in 2024/25 to 186.0 Mt in this new season.
• China would import 112 Mt, 3.7% more than the previous year (108.0 Mt), while the European Union would reach 14 Mt, a 4.8% decrease.
• For Mexico, imports of 6.7 Mt are expected this year, up 4.1% from the previous season.

Stocks

• Global ending stocks of soybeans are expected to increase by 2.6%, reaching 125.5 million tons. U.S. stocks are projected to grow by 7.7%, while Brazil's are expected to increase by 3.0%.