USDA corn and soybeans projections for the 2025/2026 season – December 2025

January 12, 2026/ 333 Latin America with data from USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/

13-Jan-2026 (4 months 25 days ago)

These are the highlights of the grain and oilseed estimates for the 2025/26 season published by the USDA on December 9th:

<p>Harvest projections for the main global producers of corn and soybeans - 2025/26 season versus 2024/25 - last updated: December 9, 2025. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.</p>

Corn

Production

Global corn production for the 2025/26 season is expected to be around 1283 million tons (Mt), a 4.3% increase compared to the 2024/25 season, last estimated at 1230.6 Mt.

United States production is forecast to reach 425.5 Mt, up 12.5% from the previous season (378.3 Mt). China would remain at 295 Mt. The European Union would decrease by 3.9% to 56.8 Mt, and Ukraine, with 29 Mt, would see an increase of 8.2% compared to the 26.8 Mt in the previous season.

For Brazil, production is expected to reach 131.0 Mt, down 3.7% from the 2024/25 season (136 Mt). Argentina's harvest would be around 53 Mt, 6.0% above the previous season (50 Mt).

Exports

Global corn exports would increase 9.6% in this new season, reaching 205.1 Mt.

The United States is expected to lead exports with 81.3 Mt, which would be a 12.0% increase from the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 43, 37, and 23 Mt, respectively.

Imports

China is forecast to increase its demand for imported corn by 338.8%, reaching 8 Mt in this new season, while the European Union is expected to import 20 Mt, an increase of 7.6% compared to the 2024/25 season (18.6 Mt).

Stocks

Ending stocks are expected to decrease by 4.8% globally, reaching 279.2 Mt. United States stocks would increase by 32.5%. Brazil's would decrease by 66.1%.

Soybeans

Production

Global soybean production for the 2025/26 season is expected to decrease by 1.1% compared to the previous season, going from 427.2 to 422.5 Mt.

Estimates for South American harvests indicate a 2.0% increase for Brazil, which would reach 175 Mt, while for Argentina, a decrease of 5.1% is estimated, reaching 48.5 Mt.

Paraguay is forecast to increase its production by 7.8% compared to the 2024/25 season (10.2 Mt), consolidating a harvest of 11 Mt.

The United States harvest is estimated at 115.8 Mt, which would mean a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous season (119.0 Mt).

Exports

Export activity is expected to be led by Brazil with 112.5 Mt, up 9.1% from the 2024/25 season. The United States would reach an export volume of 44.5 Mt, a 13.1% decrease from the previous season (51.2 Mt).

Argentina's exports are projected at 8.3 Mt, an increase of 4.8% compared to the previous season (7.9 Mt).

Imports

China is expected to import 112 Mt, 3.7% above the previous season's total (108 Mt).

Stocks

Ending stocks of the oilseed would decrease by 0.7% globally, reaching 122.4 Mt.