USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2025/2026 season - August 2025

August 12, 2025/ 333 Latin America with data from USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/

03-Sep-2025 (9 months 5 days ago)

These are the highlights from the grain and oilseed estimates for the 2025/26 season published by the USDA on August 12:

<p>Harvest projections for the world's leading corn and soybean producers - 2025/26 season versus 2024/25 season - last update: August 12, 2025. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.</p>

Corn

Production

Global corn production for the 2025/26 season is expected to reach approximately 1,288.6 million tons (Mt), representing a 5.1% increase compared to the 2024/25 season, which was last estimated at 1,226.0 Mt.

United States production is forecast to reach 425.3 Mt, up 12.6% from the previous season (377.6 Mt). China is expected to remain at 295.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to decrease by 2.2% to 58.0 Mt. Ukraine, with 32.0 Mt, would see a 19.4% increase compared to the 26.8 Mt consolidated in the previous season.

For Brazil, production is expected to reach 131 Mt, down 0.8% compared to the 2024/25 season (132 Mt), while for Argentina, the harvest is expected to be around 53 Mt, which is 6.0% higher than last season (50 Mt).

Exports

Global corn exports are expected to increase by 3.7% in this new season, reaching 200.9 Mt.

The United States is expected to lead export activity with 73.0 Mt, up 2.0% from the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 43, 37, and 25.5 Mt, respectively.

Imports

China is expected to increase its demand for imported corn by 150.0%, reaching 10 Mt in this new season. The European Union is expected to import 22.0 Mt, representing an increase of 10.0% compared to the 2024/25 season (20.0 Mt).

Stocks

Ending stocks are expected to decline by 0.2% globally, reaching 282.5 Mt. Stocks in the United States are expected to increase by 62.2%, while stocks in Brazil are expected to decrease by 55.1%.

Soybeans

Production

Global soybean production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 0.6% compared to the previous season, going from 424.0 to 426.4 Mt.

Estimates for South American harvests indicate an increase of 3.6% for Brazil, which would reach 175 Mt. Argentina is expected to see a decrease of 4.7%, reaching 48.5 Mt, and Paraguay would increase its production by 7.8% compared to the 2024/25 season (10.2 Mt), consolidating a harvest of 11.0 Mt.

For the United States, the harvest is estimated at 116.8 Mt, a 1.7% decrease compared to the previous season (118.8 Mt).

Exports

Brazil should lead exports with 112.0 Mt, up 9.7% from the 2024/25 season, while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 46.4 Mt, down 9.1% compared to the previous season (51.0 Mt).

Exports for Argentina are projected at 5.8 Mt, a 4.9% decrease from the previous growing season (6.1 Mt).

Imports

China is expected to import 112 Mt, up 5.2% from the previous season's total (106.5 Mt).

Stocks

Ending stocks are projected to decline by 0.9% globally, reaching 124.9 Mt, offset by increases in Brazilian stocks.