USDA corn and soybean projections for 2025/2026 - July 2025

These are the highlights from the grain and oilseed estimates for the 2025/26 marketing year released by the USDA on July 11:

Corn

Production

• World corn production for the 2025/26 season is expected to be around 1263.7 million tons (Mt), a 3.1% increase compared to the 2024/25 season, last estimated at 1225.3 Mt.
• United States production would reach 398.9 Mt, up 5.6% compared to the previous season (377.6 Mt), while China would remain at 295.0 Mt. The European Union would grow by 1.2% with 60.0 Mt, while Ukraine, with 30.5 Mt, would see an increase of 13.8% compared to the 26.8 Mt consolidated in the previous season.
• Brazil's production would reach 131 Mt, down 0.8% compared to the 2024/25 season (132 Mt), while Argentina's harvest would be around 53 Mt, 6.0% higher than last season (50 Mt).

Exports

• World corn exports are expected to increase 1.7% this new season, consolidating 195.8 Mt.
• The United States would lead the export activity with 67.9 Mt and decrease 2.7% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 43, 37, and 24 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• China is expected to increase its demand for imported corn by 100.0%, reaching 10 Mt this season. The European Union would import 20.5 Mt, an increase of 2.5% compared to the 2024/25 season (20.0 Mt).

Stocks

• Final stocks would decrease by 4.3% globally, reaching 272.1 Mt. For the United States, stocks would grow by 23.9%, while for Brazil, they would decrease by 55.1%.

Soybeans

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2025/26 season is forecast to increase by 1.3% compared to the previous season, going from 422.0 to 427.7 Mt.
• For Brazil, an increase of 3.6% is expected, reaching 175 Mt. For Argentina, a decrease of 2.8% is estimated, reaching 48.5 Mt.
• Paraguay would increase its production by 7.8% with respect to the 2024/25 season (10.2 Mt), consolidating a crop of 11.0 Mt.
• For the United States, a crop of 118.0 Mt is estimated, which would mean a decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous season (118.8 Mt).

Exports

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 112.0 Mt, up 9.2% from the 2024/25 season. The United States would reach an export volume of 47.5 Mt, a decrease of 6.4% compared to the previous season (50.8 Mt).
• For Argentina, exports are projected at 5.0 Mt, representing a drop of 18.0% compared to the previous season (6.1 Mt).

Imports

• China is expected to import 112 Mt, 5.2% above the previous year's total (106.5 Mt).

Stocks

• World ending stocks would increase by 0.8% to 126.1 Mt, which would be supported by increases in stocks in Brazil and Argentina.