Corn and soybeans: First USDA estimates for the 2025/26 season

These are the highlights from the first grain and oilseed estimates for the 2025/2026 marketing year, released by USDA on May 12:

Corn

Production

• World corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to be around 1,265.0 million tons (Mt), an increase of 3.6% compared to the 2024/25 season, last estimated at 1,221.3 Mt.

• In the United States, production is forecasted to reach 401.8 Mt, an increase of 6.4% compared to the previous season (377.6 Mt). China is expected to remain at 295.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to grow by 1.2%, with 60.0 Mt, and Ukraine, with 30.5 Mt, would increase by 13.8% compared to the 26.8 Mt harvested last season.

• In Brazil, production is forecast to reach 131 Mt, up 0.8% compared to the 2024/25 season (130 Mt), while in Argentina, the harvest would be around 53 Mt, 6.0% above the previous season (50 Mt).

Exports

• World corn exports are expected to increase by 3.4% this season, reaching 195.8 Mt.

• The United States is to lead the export activity with 67.9 Mt, an increase of 2.9% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, with 43, 37, and 24 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• China would increase its demand for imported corn by 25.0%, reaching 10 Mt in this new season, while the European Union would import 20.5 Mt, an increase of 2.5% compared to the 2024/25 season (20.0 Mt).

Stocks

• Ending stocks are expected to fall by 3.3% globally, to 277.8 Mt. In the United States, they are expected to grow by 27.2%, while in Brazil, they are expected to fall by 56.8%.

Soybeans

Production

• World soybean production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 1.4% over the previous season, going from 420.9 Mt to 426.8 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops indicate a 3.6% increase in Brazil, reaching 175 Mt, while Argentina is expected to decrease by 1.0%, producing 48.5 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 7.8% compared to the 2024/25 season (10.2 Mt), consolidating a crop of 11.0 Mt.

• The United States crop is estimated at 118.1 Mt, a decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous season (118.8 Mt).

Exports

• Brazil would lead exports with 112.0 Mt, 7.2% more than in the 2024/25 season, while the United States would reach an export volume of 49.4 Mt, a decrease of 1.9% compared to the previous season (50.3 Mt).

• In Argentina, exports are projected at 4.5 Mt, an increase of 7.1% over the previous season (4.2 Mt).

Imports

• China is expected to import 112 Mt, 3.7% higher than the previous season (108.0 Mt).

Stocks

• Global ending stocks of the oilseed are expected to increase by 0.9% to 124.3 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in Brazil and Argentina.