World pig farming: First update of USDA estimates for 2025

Production and global exports

• World production in 2025 is forecast to remain virtually unchanged from 2024, totaling 116.7 million tons (Mt). Increased production in Brazil and the United States will offset reductions in the European Union and China.
• In Brazil, pork production is expected to increase by 2% to 4.6 Mt, thanks to solid profitability in 2024 and strong international demand for Brazilian pork.
• In the European Union, a 1% reduction is forecast to 21.1 Mt. Changes in consumer preferences, animal diseases, and regulations continue to affect the European swine industry. Lower slaughter is expected due to continued herd reduction, while high feed costs will limit pig weight growth.
• World exports are expected to decline by 1% in 2025 to 10.2 Mt, as lower exports from the EU, US, and Canada will offset increases from Brazil.
• Brazilian exports are expected to increase by 5%, as Brazil will remain a low-cost supplier and continue to expand market access.
• EU exports are estimated to decline by 4% due to lower exportable availability and increased competition in several key markets.
• Canadian exports are also expected to fall by 4% due to uncertainty in demand from its main markets.

U.S. production and exports

• U.S. hog production is expected to increase by 1% year-over-year to 12.7 Mt, as higher slaughter weight will offset the reduction in animal numbers. Lower feed costs are estimated to incentivize weight gain throughout 2025.
• U.S. exports are expected to fall by 2% in 2025, due to continued market uncertainty and lower than expected supply, which will limit export opportunities. Lower demand is anticipated in most Asian markets, which will restrict pork export growth in 2025.

Global indicators

• World pork production in 2025 is expected to reach 116.7 Mt, a slight increase of 0.2% compared to 2024 (116.4 Mt).
• Global exports are expected to fall by 1.4% compared to 2024, going from 10.3 Mt to 10.2 Mt.
• Imports are forecast to reach 9.1 Mt in 2025, which would represent an increase of 1.0% compared to the previous year (9.0 Mt).
• Apparent consumption would increase by 0.5% in 2025, going from 115.1 to 115.6 Mt.

Indicators from the main producing countries

• China is expected to produce 57.0 Mt, which would be a decrease of 0.1% with respect to 2024. A 0.5% decrease in import volume is estimated, which would reach 1.3 Mt.
• EU production is expected to fall by 0.9%, reaching 21.1 Mt. With an estimated total of 2.9 Mt, its exports are expected to fall by 3.8%. Imports are forecast at 100,000 t.
• The United States is expected to increase its production by 1.0% to 12.7 Mt, while exports are expected to fall by 2.2% to 3.2 Mt.
• Japan would remain the world's second largest pork importer with 1.46 Mt, which is 1.8% below the estimate for 2024.
• Brazil is expected to increase its production volume by 2.2%, reaching 4.6 Mt. Exports of 1.6 Mt are also expected, representing an increase of 4.5% compared to 2024.
• Mexico would grow 2.2% in production, with an approximate 1.63 Mt. It would also grow its import volume by 2.0% over the 2024 total, reaching 1.5 Mt, which would place it as the leading importer worldwide and in Latin America.
• Canada would increase its production by 0.2% with 2.1 Mt and its exports would decrease by 4.2%.