USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2024/2025 season - March 2025

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on March 11:

Corn

Production

• World corn production for the 2024/25 marketing year would be around 1214.2 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 1.1% compared to the 2023/24 season, last estimated at 1228.1 Mt.

• United States production is expected to reach 377.6 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt), while China's production would increase by 2.1%, reaching 294.9 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 6.3% decrease with 58.0 Mt. Ukraine, with 26.8 Mt, would see a decrease of 17.5% compared to the 32.5 Mt in the previous season.

• For Brazil, production is expected to reach 126 Mt, up 5.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (119 Mt), while for Argentina the harvest would be around 50 Mt, down 2.0% compared to last season (51 Mt).

Exports

• World corn exports are expected to fall 3.7% this new season, with 186.4 Mt.

• The United States would lead the export activity with 62.2 Mt and would grow 6.9% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 44, 36, and 22 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• China is expected to reduce its demand for imported corn by 65.8%, reaching only 8 Mt for this new season, while the European Union would import 19.5 Mt, which would represent a decrease of 1.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.8 Mt).

Stocks

• Ending stocks are forecast to fall by 8.0% globally, to 288.9 Mt. Stocks in the United States would fall by 12.7%, while those in Brazil and Ukraine would fall by 60.3% and 30.9 %, respectively.

Soybeans

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 6.5% compared to the previous season, from 395.0 Mt to 420.8 Mt.

• Estimates for the South American crops indicate an increase of 10.5% for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow by 1.6%, reaching 49.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to reduce its production by 2.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), consolidating a crop of 10.7 Mt.

• For the United States, a crop of 118.8 Mt is estimated, which would mean an increase of 4.9% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

Exports

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.5 Mt, 1.3% higher than the 2023/24 season, while the United States would reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, indicating a growth of 7.7% compared to the previous season (46.1 Mt).

• Exports for Argentina are projected at 4.5 Mt, a 12.0% decrease compared to the previous season (5.1 Mt).

Imports

• China would import 109 Mt, a volume 2.7% below the previous season's total (112.0 Mt).

Stocks

• Global ending stocks are expected to increase by 7.9% to 121.4 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.