USDA corn and soybean projections for 2024/25 - February 2025

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on February 11:

Corn

Production

• World corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 1212.5 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 1.4% compared to the 2023/24 season, last estimated at 1230.1 Mt.

• United States production would reach 377.6 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt), while China's harvest would increase by 2.1%, reaching 294.9 Mt. The European Union would decrease by 6.3% with 58.0 Mt, while Ukraine, with 26.5 Mt, would decrease 18.5% compared to the 32.5 Mt consolidated in the previous season.

• For Brazil, production would reach 126 Mt, an increase of 3.3% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt), while for Argentina the harvest would be around 50 Mt, similar to last season.

Exports

• World corn exports are expected to fall 2.1% this new season to 189.2 Mt.

• The United States would lead the export activity with 62.2 Mt, an increase of 6.9% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 46, 36, and 22 Mt, respectively.

Imports

• China would reduce its demand for imported corn by 57.3%, at just 10 Mt for this new season. The European Union would import 19.5 Mt, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.8 Mt).

Stocks

• Final stocks would fall by 8.1% globally, to 290.3 Mt. Stocks in the United States would fall by 12.7%, while Brazil's and Ukraine's would decrease by 67.9% and 40.3%, respectively.

Soybeans

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 6.5% compared to the previous season, going from 395.0 to 420.8 Mt.

• Estimates for the South American crops point to a 10.5% increase for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt. For Argentina a growth of 1.6% is estimated, reaching 49.0 Mt.

• Paraguay's production would decrease by 2.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), consolidating a harvest of 10.7 Mt.

• For the United States, a crop of 118.8 Mt is estimated, an increase of 4.9% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

Exports

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.5 Mt, 1.3% higher than the 2023/24 season. The United States would reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, a 7.7% increase compared to the previous season (46.1 Mt).

• Exports for Argentina are projected at 4.5 Mt, a 12.0% decrease compared to the previous season (5.1 Mt).

Imports

• China would import 109 Mt, 2.7% below last season's total (112.0 Mt).

Stocks

• Global ending stocks of soybeans would increase by 10.5%, reaching 124.3 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.