Corn and soybeans: projections for the 2024/2025 USDA – December

Corn

Production

• World corn production for the 2024/25 campaign would be around 1,217.9 million tons (Mt), which refers to a decrease of 1.0% compared to the 2023/24 cycle, whose latest estimate consolidates 1,229.6 Mt.
• For the United States, production would reach 384.6 Mt, falling 1.3% compared to the previous campaign (389.7 Mt), while China would increase its harvest by 1.1%, reaching 292.0 Mt. For its part, the European Union would decrease by 6.3% with 58.0 Mt, while Ukraine, with 26.5 Mt, would register a decrease of 18.5% compared to the 32.5 Mt consolidated in the previous cycle.
• For Brazil, production would reach 127 Mt, increasing 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 campaign (122 Mt), while for Argentina the harvest would be around 51 Mt, increasing 2.0% compared to the previous cycle.

Exports

• World corn exports would remain at 193.0 Mt in this new campaign.
• The United States would lead the export activity with 62.9 Mt and would grow 8.0% compared to the previous campaign, followed by Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine with 48, 36 and 23 Mt in that order.

Imports

• China would reduce its demand for imported corn by 40.2% reaching 14 Mt for this new campaign, while the European Union would import 19.5 Mt, which would represent a decrease of 1.5% compared to the 2023/24 cycle (19.8 Mt).

Stocks

• Global ending stocks are expected to fall by 6.3% to 296.4 Mt. In the United States, stocks are expected to fall by 1.3%, while in Brazil and Ukraine they are expected to fall by 63.8% and 59.3%, respectively.

Soybeans

Production

• Global soybean production for the 2024/25 cycle is expected to increase by 8.2% compared to the previous campaign, from 394.9 to 427.1 Mt respectively.
• Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 10.5% for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt, while for Argentina a growth of 7.9% is estimated, reaching 52.0 Mt.
• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.8% compared to the 2023/24 campaign (11.0 Mt), consolidating a harvest of 11.2 Mt.
• For the United States, a harvest of 121.4 Mt is estimated, which would mean an increase of 7.2% compared to the previous cycle (113.3 Mt).

Exports

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.5 Mt, a figure that would be 1.3% higher than that recorded in the 2023/24 cycle, while the United States would reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, indicating a growth of 7.7% compared to the previous campaign (46.1 Mt).
• For Argentina, exports are projected for 4.5 Mt, a figure that represents a decrease of 12.0% compared to the previous cycle (5.1 Mt).

Imports

• China would import 109 Mt, a volume that would be 2.7% below the total of the previous campaign (112.0 Mt).

Stocks

• Final stocks of the oilseed would increase by 17.6% worldwide, reaching 131.9 Mt, which would be supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil and Argentina.