USDA global corn and soybean projections for the 2024/25 season - November

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on November 8:

Corn

• World corn production for the 2024/25 season is forecast to be 1219.4 million tons (Mt), a 0.8% decrease from the 2023/24 season, last estimated at 1229.1 Mt.

• United States production would reach 384.6 Mt, down 1.3% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China's harvest would increase by 1.1%, reaching 292.0 Mt. The European Union would see a 4.3% decrease with 58.8 Mt. Ukraine, with 26.2 Mt, would see a 19.4% decrease compared to the 32.5 Mt harvested in the previous season.

• Brazil's production would reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt). Argentina's harvest would be around 51 Mt, up 2.0% from last season.

• World corn exports are expected to fall 3.0%, from 195.6 Mt to 189.8 Mt this new season.

• The United States would lead the export activity with 59.1 Mt, up 1.4% from the previous season. Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine follow with 48, 36, and 23 Mt, respectively.

• China is expected to reduce its demand for imported corn by 31.6%, reaching 16 Mt for this new season. The European Union would import 19.0 Mt, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.5 Mt).

• Final stocks are forecast to decrease by 3.2% globally, to 304.1 Mt. Stocks in the United States would increase by 10.1%, while those in Brazil and Ukraine would decrease by 51.4% and 56.8%, respectively.

Soybeans

• Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase 7.8% from the previous season, from 394.7 to 425.4 Mt.

• Estimates for the South American crops point to an increase of 10.5% for Brazil to reach 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow 5.8% to reach 51.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.8% compared to the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), with a crop of 11.2 Mt.

• The United States harvest is estimated to reach 121.4 Mt, an increase of 7.2% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

• Brazil would lead exports with 105.0 Mt, 1.3% more than the 2023/24 season, while the United States would export 49.7 Mt, up 7.7% from the previous season (46.1 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.5 Mt, a 12.0% decrease compared to the previous season (5.1 Mt).

• China would import 109 Mt, 2.7% less than the previous season (112.0 Mt).

• Ending stocks of soybeans globally are expected to increase by 17.2% to 131.7 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.