Global swine production: First USDA estimates for 2025

The USDA presented its initial estimates for global swine farming in 2025 in its latest report, “Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade” dated October 11. It foresees a less than 1% decline in production and apparent consumption and greater dynamism in the international pork trade.

Global production and exports

• World production in 2025 is forecast to decline by 0.8% to 115.1 million tons (Mt), as lower production in China and the European Union will more than offset growth in the United States, Vietnam, and Brazil.
• Vietnam's pork production is forecast to increase by 3.0%, reaching 3.8 Mt, due to the expected expansion of the pig herd as the sector consolidates and improves its management of African swine fever (ASF).
• Production in Brazil is estimated to grow by 1.2%, reaching 4.6 Mt, thanks to strong export demand and lower input costs.
• Despite improved profitability in the sector in 2024, pork production in China is forecast to be 2.2% lower in 2025 at 55.5 Mt. The reduction in the sow census in 2024 is expected to reduce the number of animals available for slaughter in 2025. In addition, Chinese consumer demand for pork is expected to remain weak due to continued economic uncertainty and a growing preference for poultry meat.
• European Union production will decrease by 1.6% in 2025, reaching 20.9 Mt due to decreased pork prices.
• World pork exports are forecast to increase by 1.0%, reaching 10.4 Mt in 2025, as export growth from the United States and Canada will offset lower exports from the EU.
• Canada's exports are estimated to increase by 0.7% to reach 1.5 Mt, with stable U.S. demand and continued growth in several Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea.
• EU exports are forecast to decline by 1.7% to 2.95 Mt, due to the expected reduction in supply available for export and the current ASF-related trade restrictions.

U.S. production and exports

• U.S. production is expected to increase by 2.0% in 2025, reaching 12.9 Mt, due to growth in the number of animals slaughtered and the number of pigs per litter. Also, improved industry profitability in 2024 and lower feed costs are expected to continue to support increased pig weights.
• U.S. exports are projected to increase by 3.4% in 2025, reaching 3.4 Mt due to ample domestic supply and strong export price competitiveness.

Global indicators

• World pork production in 2025 will stand at 115.1 Mt, a decrease of 0.8% compared to 2024 (116 Mt).
• Global exports will grow by 1.0% compared to 2024, from 10.3 to 10.4 Mt.
• Imports will reach a volume of 9.03 Mt in 2025, representing an increase of 2.3% over the previous year.
• Apparent consumption will decrease by 0.7%, from 114.6 to 113.8 Mt.

Indicators from the leading countries

• China: Production will reach 55.5 Mt, a decrease of 2.2% compared to 2024. Import volumes are expected to increase by 7.7%, reaching 1.4 Mt.
• European Union: Production will decrease by 1.6% to 20.9 Mt. Exports will fall by 1.7%, with an estimated total of 3.0 Mt. Imports are expected at 110,000 tons.
• United States: Production will increase by 2.0% to 12.9 Mt, and exports are expected to increase by 3.4% to 3.4 Mt.
• Japan: It will remain the second largest importer of pork worldwide, with 1.43 Mt, a similar figure to that estimated for 2024.
• Brazil: Production volume will increase by 4.0%, reaching 4.6 Mt. Exports will remain at 1.5 Mt, similar to the figure projected for 2024.
• Mexico: Production will increase by 1.6%, reaching approximately 1.62 Mt. It will also be the largest importer of pork worldwide, with 1.44 Mt, 0.7% more than in 2024.
• Canada: Production will increase by 1.9%, reaching 2.1 Mt, and exports will increase by 0.7%.