USDA corn and soybean forecasts for the 2024/2025 season – August 2024

Here are highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on August 12:

Corn

• World corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 1219.8 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 0.3% compared to the 2023/24 season, last etimated at 1223.8 Mt.

• United States production is expected to reach 384.7 Mt, down 1.3% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China is forecast to increase its harvest by 1.1%, reaching 292.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 60.5 Mt, and Ukraine, with 27.2 Mt, is expected to see a 16.3% decrease compared to the 32.5 Mt in the previous season.

• For Brazil, production is expected to reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt). Argentina's crop is expected to reach 51 Mt, up 2.0% compared to the last season.

• World corn exports are expected to fall by 4.5%, from 200.6 Mt to 191.5 Mt this new season.

• The United States would lead exports with 58.4 Mt and is expected to increase by 2.2% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 49, 36, and 24 Mt, respectively.

• China's demand for imported corn is forecast to remain unchanged at 23 Mt for this new season. The European Union is forecast to import 18.0 Mt, which would represent a decrease of 7.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.5 Mt).

• Ending stocks are expected to decrease by 0.5% globally, to 310.2 Mt. Stocks in the United States are expected to increase by 11.1%, while those in Brazil and Ukraine should decrease by 26.0 and 53.2%, respectively.

Soybeans

• Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is forecast to increase by 8.5% compared to the previous season, going from 395.1 Mt to 428.7 Mt.

• Regarding South American crops, an increase of 10.5% is expected for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow by 4.1%, reaching 51.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (10.5 Mt), consolidating a crop of 10.7 Mt.

• For the United States, a crop of 124.9 Mt is estimated, which would mean an increase of 10.2% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.0 Mt, similar to the figure recorded in the 2023/24 season. The United States would reach an export volume of 50.3 Mt, a growth of 8.8% compared to the previous season (46.3 Mt).

• Argentina's exports are projected at 4.5 Mt, representing a 19.6% decrease compared to the previous season (5.6 Mt).

• China would import 109 Mt, a volume 2.2% below the previous season's total (111.5 Mt).

• World ending stocks of the oilseed would increase by 19.5% to 134.3 Mt, which would be supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.