USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2024/2025 season - July 2024

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on July 12.

Corn

• World corn production for the 2024/25 season is forecast to reach 1224.8 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 0.1% compared to the 2023/24 season, which was last estimated at 1225.5 Mt.

• United States production is expected to reach 383.6 Mt, down 1.6% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China's harvest should increase by 1.1% to reach 292.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see 4.9% growth to 64.0 Mt. Ukraine, with 27.7 Mt, would decrease by 10.6% compared to the 31 Mt consolidated in the previous season.

• In Brazil, production would reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt), while in Argentina the harvest would be around 51 Mt, down 1.9% compared to the last season.

• World corn exports are expected to fall by 4.5%, from 200.9 Mt to 191.8 Mt this new season.

• The United States would lead exports with 56.5 Mt maintaining the same level as the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 49, 36, and 24.5 Mt respectively, whose totals would decrease by 2.0, 2.7, and 12.5%.

• China's demand for imported corn would remain unchanged at 23 Mt for this new season, while the European Union would import 18.0 Mt, which would represent a decrease of 12.2% compared to the 2023/24 season (20.5 Mt).

• Final stocks would grow by 0.8% globally, reaching 311.6 Mt. Stocks in the United States would increase by 11.7%, while those of Brazil and Ukraine would decrease by 26.0% and 55.0%, respectively.

Soybeans

• Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 6.7% compared to the previous season, from 395.4 Mt to 421.9 Mt.

• Brazil is expected to see an increase of 10.5% in their harvest to reach 169 Mt, while Argentina's is expected to grow by 3.0%, reaching 51.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (10.5 Mt), consolidating a crop of 10.7 Mt.

• A crop of 120.7 Mt is estimated for the United States, which would mean an increase of 6.5% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

• Export activity should be led by Brazil with 105.0 Mt, growing by 1.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (103.0 Mt), while the United States should reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, which indicates a 7.4% growth compared to the previous season (46.3 Mt).

• Exports for Argentina are projected at 5.5 Mt, a 1.8% decrease compared to the previous season (5.6 Mt).

• China is expected to import 109 Mt, 0.9% above the previous year's total (108 Mt).

• World ending stocks would increase by 14.8% to 127.8 Mt, which would be supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.