USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2024/2025 season - June 2024

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on June 12:

Corn

• World corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 1220.5 million tons (Mt), representing a 0.6% decrease compared to the 2023/24 season, which was last estimated at 1228.1 Mt.

• For the United States, production is expected to reach 377.5 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China should see its harvest increase by 1.1% to reach 292.0 Mt. The European Union is forecast to see a 6.2% growth with 64.8 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.7 Mt, would see a decrease of 10.6% compared to the 31 Mt consolidated in the previous season.

• Brazil's production should reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt), while Argentina's harvest should be around 51 Mt, down 3.8% compared to the last season.

• World corn exports are expected to fall by 3.7%, from 199.1 Mt to 191.7 Mt this new season.

• The United States should lead exports with 55.9 Mt, up 2.3% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 49, 36, and 24.5 Mt respectively, whose totals would decrease by 2.0%, 5.3%, and 5.8%, respectively.

• China's corn demand is expected to remain unchanged at 23 Mt for this new season, while the European Union would import 18.0 Mt, a decrease of 14.3% compared to the 2023/24 season (21.0 Mt).

• Ending stocks are expected to fall by 0.5% globally, to 310.8 Mt. Stocks in the United States are expected to increase by 4%, while those of Brazil and Ukraine are expected to decrease by 26.0% and 49.1%, respectively.

Soybeans

• Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season would increase by 6.7% compared to the previous season, going from 395.9 to 422.3 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 10.5% for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow by 2.0%, reaching 51.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (10.5 Mt) to reach 10.7 Mt.

• The United States expects a crop of 121.1 Mt, an increase of 6.9% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

• Export activity should be led by Brazil with 105.0 Mt, up 2.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (102.0 Mt), while the United States should see export volumes of 49.7 Mt, a 7.4% growth compared to the previous season (46.3 Mt).

• Argentina is expected to export 5.5 Mt, an increase of 19.6% compared to the previous season (4.6 Mt).

• China is expected to import 109 Mt, 3.8% above the previous year's total (105 Mt).

• Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 15.1% to 127.9 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.