USDA's first corn and soybean estimates for 2024/2025 - May 2024

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on May 10:

Corn

• World corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 1219.9 million tons (Mt), representing a decrease of 0.7% compared to the 2023/24 season, with the latest estimate at 1228.1 Mt.

• United States production is forecast to reach 377.5 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China's is expected to increase by 1.1%, reaching 292.0 Mt. The European Union anticipates a growth of 6.2% with 64.8 Mt while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, would see a decrease of 12.9% compared to the 31 Mt consolidated in the previous season.

• For Brazil, production is forecast to reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt), while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 51 Mt, down 3.8% compared to the last season.

• World corn exports are expected to fall 3.2%, from 197.4 Mt to 191.1 Mt this new season.

• The United States should lead export activity with 55.9 Mt, up 2.3% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 49, 36, and 24 Mt, respectively whose totals would decrease by 2.0%, 5.3%, and 7.7%.

• China's corn demand is expected to remain unchanged at 23 Mt for this new season, while the European Union will import 18.0 Mt, which represents a decrease of 14.3% compared to the 2023/24 season (21.0 Mt).

• Ending stocks would fall by 0.3% globally, to 312.3 Mt. United States stocks would increase by 4%, while in Brazil and Ukraine, they would decrease by 26.0% and 49.1%, respectively.

Soybeans

• Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season would increase 6.4% compared to the previous season, from 396.9 to 422.3 Mt.

• Estimates for the South American crops indicate an increase of 9.7% for Brazil, reaching 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow by 2.0%, reaching 51.0 Mt.

• Paraguay would increase its production by 1.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (10.5 Mt), resulting in a harvest of 10.7 Mt.

• The United States crop is estimated to reach 121.1 Mt, a 6.9% increase compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

• The export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.0 Mt, growing by 2.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (102.0 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, which indicates a 7.4% growth compared to the previous season (46.3 Mt).

• Argentina is expected to export 5.5 Mt, an increase of 19.6% compared to the previous season (4.6 Mt).

• China is expected to import 109 Mt, a volume 3.8% above the previous season's total (105 Mt).

• Global ending stocks of soybeans would increase by 15.0% to 128.5 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.