Corn and soybeans: Projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - March 2024

The highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on March 8 are presented:

Corn

• World corn production for the 2023/24 season is forecast to reach 1230.2 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.3% compared to the 2022/23 season (1157.5 Mt).

• United States production is estimated at 389.7 Mt, up 12.4% compared to the previous season (346.7 Mt). China is expected to increase its harvest by 4.2% to reach 288.8 Mt. The European Union should see 14.7% growth with 60.1 Mt, while Ukraine, with 29.5 Mt, would see an increase of 9.3%.

• Brazil's production is expected to reach 129 Mt, which would represent a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous season. Argentina's harvest is forecast to reach 56 Mt, thus growing 55.6% compared to the last season.

• Global corn exports are expected to increase by 12.3%, going from 180.2 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 202.3 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the largest exporter with 53.3 Mt, which would represent an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly from Argentina, with a 68.0% increase this season to reach 42.0 Mt. For Brazil, 52 Mt are estimated, representing a decrease of 4.2% compared to the previous season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is forecast to import 22.0 Mt, which is 5.0% less than in the 2022/23 season (23.2 Mt).

• Final stocks are expected to increase by 6.0% worldwide, reaching 319.6 Mt. The United States stocks should grow by 59.7%, while Brazil's should decrease by 46.2%.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase by 5.0% compared to the previous season, going from 378.1 to 396.9 Mt.

• Estimates for South American harvests show a decrease of 4.3% for Brazil, which would reach 155 Mt, while an increase of 100.0% is projected for Argentina with 50.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is forecast to increase its production by 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (10.1 Mt), reaching a harvest of 10.3 Mt.

• This new report estimates a harvest of 113.3 Mt for the United States, representing a decrease of 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season when 116.2 Mt were harvested.

• Brazil would lead export activity with 103.0 Mt, an increase of 7.8% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt). The United States export volume is estimated at 46.8 Mt, representing a decrease of 13.6% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).

• Argentina's exports are projected at 4.6 Mt, representing an increase of 9.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (4.2 Mt).

• China is forecast to import 105 Mt, a volume 0.5% higher than the previous season.

• Final soybean stocks are anticipated to increase by 11.9% globally, reaching 114.3 Mt. This would be supported by increases in stocks in Argentina, the United States, and China.