Corn and soybean: Projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - February 2024

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on February 8:

Corn

• World corn production for the 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1232.6 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.6% compared to the 2022/23 season (1155.9 Mt).

• United States production is expected to reach around 389.7 Mt, up 12.4% compared to the previous season (346.7 Mt), while China is expected to increase its harvest by 4.2%, reaching 288.8 Mt. The European Union would grow by 14.7% with 60.1 Mt, while Ukraine, with 30.5 Mt, would see an increase of 13.0%.

• Brazilian production is forecast to reach 129 Mt, representing a 5.8% decrease compared to the previous season, while for Argentina the crop would reach 55 Mt, an increase of 57.1% compared to the previous season.

• World corn exports are expected to increase by 11.0%, going from 181.0 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 200.8 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter with 53.3 Mt, which would represent an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply should see a significant increase in Argentina. It is expected to increase by 70.8% with 41.0 Mt, while for Brazil, 52 Mt are estimated, which would represent a decrease of 7.1% compared to the previous season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 23.0 Mt, 0.6% less than in the 2022/23 season (23.2 Mt).

• Final stocks are expected to increase by 7.3% globally, reaching 322.1 Mt. United States stocks would increase by 59.7%, while for Brazil they would decrease by 41.9%.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season would increase 5.3% over the previous year, from 378.1 to 398.2 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show a 3.7% decrease for Brazil, which would reach 156 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 100.0% with 50.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (10.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10.3 Mt.

• In this new report, the US crop is estimated at 113.3 Mt, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.2 Mt.

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 100.0 Mt, growing 4.7% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 46.8 Mt, representing a decrease of 13.6% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 9.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (4.2 Mt).

• China is expected to import 102 Mt, a volume that is 1.1% higher than in the previous season.

• Oilseed ending stocks are expected to increase 12.0% globally to 116.0 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in Argentina, the United States, and China.