Corn and soybeans: Projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - January 2024

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on January 12.

Corn

• World corn production for the 2023/24 season is projected to reach 1235.7 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (1155.6 Mt).

• United States production is expected to reach 389.7 Mt, up 12.4% compared to the previous season (346.7 Mt), while China would increase its harvest by 4.2%, reaching 288.8 Mt. The European Union should see a 14.7% increase with 60.1 Mt, while Ukraine, with 30.5 Mt, would see an increase of 13.0%.

• For Brazil, production should reach 129 Mt, representing a 5.8% decrease compared to the previous season, while for Argentina the crop should reach 55 Mt, an increase of 61.8% compared to the previous season.

• World corn exports are expected to increase by 11.1%, going from 180.8 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 200.9 Mt in the new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain with 53.3 Mt, which would represent an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply would see a significant increase in Argentina, as it should increase by 78.3 % in this new season with 41.0 Mt, while Brazil is estimated at 54 Mt, which would represent a 5.3% decrease compared to the previous season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 23.5 Mt, 1.5% more than in the 2022/23 season (23.2 Mt).

• Ending stocks are expected to increase by 8.2% worldwide, reaching 325.2 Mt. United States stocks would increase by 58.9%, while Brazil's would decrease by 32.1%.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase 6.3% over the previous season, going from 375.4 to 399.0 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show a 1.9% decrease for Brazil, which would reach 157 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 100.0% with 50.0 Mt.

• Paraguay's production should increase by 5.6% compared to the 2022/23 season (9.8 Mt), reaching a crop of 10.3 Mt.

• In this new report, the US crop is estimated at 113.3 Mt, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.2 Mt.

• Export activity would be led by Brazil with 99.5 Mt, increasing 4.2% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 47.8 Mt, a decrease of 11.9% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would represent an increase of 9.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (4.2 Mt).

• China is expected to import 102 Mt, 1.1% more than in the previous season.

• Ending stocks are expected to increase by 12.5% globally to 114.6 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in Argentina, China, and Brazil.