World pig farming: Update on USDA estimates for 2023 and 2024

General context

• World pork production for 2024 is estimated 1% below the October forecast due to lower production expected in China, the European Union, and Brazil.

• China's production is expected to decline, given the continued weak demand that discourages the expansion of domestic production.

• Continued regulation and changes in consumer preferences were the factors behind the downward projections for the European Union.

• Brazil's production is estimated to be lower than projected in October, as imports from China, its main market, continue to weaken.

• U.S. production is virtually unchanged, as the decrease in farrowings has been offset by an increase in pigs per litter.

• World pork exports for 2024 were lowered by 2% from the October forecast, as the European Union, the United States, and Brazil increasingly compete for China's lowering imports.

• Although U.S. exports remain strong to many major markets, including Mexico and Canada, total exports are projected to decline given weak import demand from Japan and China.

• Exports from the United Kingdom are also expected to decline due to decreasing demand from the European Union.

Global estimates

• World pork production in 2024 is expected to reach 114.2 million tons (Mt), representing a decrease of 0.9% compared to the 2023 total (115.2 Mt).

• Global exports this year are expected to grow by 1.8% compared to 2023, going from 10.0 Mt to 10.2.

• Imports should reach a volume of 9.7 Mt in 2024, which represents an increase of 5.4% compared to the previous year (9.2 Mt).

• Apparent consumption is expected to decrease by 0.6%, from 114.5 to 113.8 Mt.

Leading countries

• China, which would account for 48.4% of world production, is expected to produce 55.2 Mt of pork, representing a 3% drop compared to 2023. An increase of 16.9% is estimated for pork import volumes, which would reach 2.3 Mt.

• The European Union's production is forecast to fall by 0.7% to 20.7 Mt, while its exports are expected to remain at the same level as in 2023 (3.1 Mt). Imports are estimated at 100,000 t, which represents a decrease of 4.8% compared to the year prior.

• The United States is expected to increase its production by 2.4% to 12.7 Mt, and exports are expected to increase by 1.5% to 3.1 Mt.

• Japan will remain the world's second leading pork importer with 1.5 Mt, an increase of 2.1%.

• Brazil is expected to increase its production volume by 4.5%, reaching 4.7 Mt. Exports of 1.5 Mt are also expected, which would mean an increase of 6.1% compared to 2023.

• Mexico is expected to increase its production by 1.9% with an approximate 1.6 Mt. It would maintain its position as the third largest importer in the world and the first in Latin America with a total of 1.3 Mt, maintaining the volume of imports reached in 2023.

• Canada's production is forecast to decrease by 2.4%, consolidating 2 Mt in 2024, while its exports would increase by 0.8% with 1.3 Mt.

• Vietnam's production is expected to increase by 5%, from 3.5 Mt in 2023 to 3.7 Mt in this year, while its imports are expected to increase by 4.7% with 112,000 tons.

• Russia is expected to increase its production by 1.3%, reaching 4 Mt.