USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 season - December 2023

We present the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on December 8.

Corn

• World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1222.1 million tons (Mt), an increase of 5.6% compared to the 2022/23 season (1157.2 Mt).

• United States production is expected to be 387.0 Mt, an increase of 11.1% compared to the previous season (348.4 Mt), while China's harvest is expected to decrease by 0.1% to 277.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 14.7% increase with 60.1 Mt, and Ukraine, with 30.5 Mt, is expected to see an increase of 13.0%.

• Brazil's corn production should reach 129 Mt, representing a 5.8% decrease compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 55 Mt, an increase of 61.8% compared to the previous season.

• World corn exports are forecast to increase by 11.3%, from 181.0 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 201.5 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain with 53.3 Mt, an increase of 26.4% over the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with a 78.3% increase in this new season with 41.0 Mt, while Brazil's is estimated at 55 Mt, which represents a 3.5% decrease compared to the previous season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 24.5 Mt, 5.8% more than in the 2022/23 season (23.2 Mt).

• World ending stocks are expected to increase by 5.0% to 315.2 Mt. United States stocks are expected to increase by 56.5%, while those of Brazil and China are expected to decrease by 22.4% and 2.0%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase by 6.5% compared to the previous season, going from 374.4 to 398.9 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 0.6% for Brazil, which would reach 161 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

• Paraguay's production is expected to increase by 10.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (9.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, and returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

• In this new report, the US crop is estimated at 112.4 Mt, a decrease of 3.3% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.2 Mt.

• Export activity will be led by Brazil with 99.5 Mt, an increase of 4.2% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt), while the United States will reach an export volume of 47.8 Mt, a figure that represents a decrease of 11.9% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 9.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (4.2 Mt).

• China is expected to import 102 Mt, 1.1% more than the previous year.

• Ending stocks of soybeans are expected to increase by 12.1% globally to 114.2 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in Argentina and Brazil.