Corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 USDA marketing year - October 23

These are highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on October 12:

Corn

• World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1214.5 million tons (Mt), an increase of 5.1% compared to the 2022/23 season (1155.0 Mt).

• United States production is expected to reach 382.7 Mt, up 9.8% from the previous season (348.4 Mt), while China's crop is expected to decrease by 0.1% to 277.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 14.3% growth to reach 59.7 Mt, while Ukraine, with 28 Mt, is expected to see an increase of 3.7%.

• Brazil's production is estimated to reach 129 Mt, representing a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 55 Mt, an increase of 61.8% compared to the previous season.

• World corn exports are expected to increase by 8.4%, from 181.0 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 196.3 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain with 51.4 Mt, an increase of 21.9% compared to the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with a 78.3% increase in the new season with 41.0 Mt, while Brazil's is estimated at 55 Mt, representing a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 24.3% compared to the previous season (18.5 Mt), while the European Union is expected to maintain its imports at 24 Mt.

• World ending stocks are expected to increase by 4.8% to 312.4 Mt. In fact, for the United States, stocks are expected to increase by 55.1%, while for Brazil and China they are expected to decrease by 22.2% and 2.0%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase by 7.9% over the previous season, from 370.2 Mt to 399.5 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 10.5% with respect to the 2022/23 season (9.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

• This new report estimates a U.S. crop of 111.7 Mt, a decrease of 3.9% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.2 Mt.

• The export activity would be led by Brazil with 97.5 Mt, growing by 2.1% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt), while the United States will reach an export volume of 47.8 Mt, a figure that represents a decrease of 11.9% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 12.2% with respect to the 2022/23 season (4.1 Mt).

• China is expected to import 100 Mt, 2% less than the previous season.

• Oilseed ending stocks are expected to increase by 13.5% globally to 115.6 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in Argentina and Brazil.