USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 season - September 2023

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on September 12 are presented:

Corn

• World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1214.3 million tons (Mt), an increase of 5.1% compared to the 2022/23 season (1155.6 Mt).

• United States production is expected to be around 384.4 Mt, up 10.2% compared to the previous season (348.8 Mt), while China is forecast to see a decrease in its harvest by 0.1%, reaching 277.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 13.7% growth with 59.4 Mt, while Ukraine, with 28 Mt, would see an increase of 3.7%.

• Brazil's production is estimated to reach 129 Mt, representing a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 54 Mt, an increase of 58.8% compared to the previous season.

• World exports of the grain would increase by 8%, from 181.7 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 196.2 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain with 52.1 Mt, up 23.1% compared to the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with a 76.1% increase in this new season with 40.5 Mt, while Brazil is estimated to have 55 Mt, which represents a 3.5% decrease compared to the previous season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 24.3% compared to the previous season (18.5 Mt), while the European Union is expected to reduce its imports by 2.0% to 24 Mt.

• World ending stocks should increase by 4.8% to 314.0 Mt. United States stocks should increase by 53%, while for Brazil and China, they should decrease by 22.4% and 2.0% respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase 8.4% over the previous season, from 370.1 Mt to 401.3 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is set to increase its production by 10.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (9.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

• This new report estimates a U.S. crop of 112.8 Mt, a decrease of 3.0% compared to the 2022/23 season when the crop reached 116.4 Mt.

• The export activity would be led by Brazil with 97 Mt, growing 2.1% compared to the previous season (95.0 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 48.7 Mt, representing a decrease of 10.1% compared to last year's crop (54.2 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 15% with respect to the 2022/23 season (4.0 Mt).

• China is expected to import 100 Mt, 2% less than the previous season.

• Final stocks of the oilseed are expected to increase by 15.8% globally to 119.2 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in Argentina and Brazil.