Corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - August 2023

Corn

• World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1213.5 million tons (Mt), an increase of 5.4% compared to the 2022/23 season (1151.8 Mt).

• United States production is expected to be around 383.8 Mt, 10.1% higher than the previous year (348.8 Mt), while China's harvest will decrease by 0.1% to 277.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 14.3% increase with 59.7 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.5 Mt, will see an increase of 1.9%.

• Brazil's production is expected to reach 129 Mt, which represents a 4.4% decrease compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 54 Mt, an increase of 58.8% compared to the previous season.

• World exports of corn are forecast to increase by 10.5%, from 177.5 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 196.2 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain, reaching 52.1 Mt, an increase of 26.2% over the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with an increase of 84.1% in this new season with 40.5 Mt, while Brazil is estimated at 55 Mt, representing a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 27.8% compared to the previous season (18.0 Mt), while the European Union is expected to reduce its imports by 2.0% with 24 Mt.

• World ending stocks would increase by 4.4% to 311.0 Mt. For the United States, stocks should increase by 51.2%, while for Brazil and China, stocks should decrease by 25.6% and 2.0%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase 8.9% over the previous season, from 369.7 to 402.8 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

• Paraguay should increase its production by 10.5% with respect to the 2022/23 season (9.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt and returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

• This new report estimates the United States will produce a crop of 114.5 Mt, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the 2022/23 season when the crop reached 116.4 Mt.

• Export activity should be led by Brazil with 96.5 Mt, growing by 2.7% compared to the previous season (94.0 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, which represents a 7.8% decrease compared to the last harvest (53.9 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 17.9% with respect to the 2022/23 season (3.9 Mt).

• China is expected to import 99 Mt, 1% less than in the previous season.

• Final world soybean stocks are expected to increase by 15.8% to 119.4 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in Argentina and Brazil.