Global pig farming: USDA improves its outlook for international trade

General overview

• The forecast for world pork production in 2023 remains practically unchanged at 114.8 million tons (Mt).

• Increases in the production forecast for China, Canada, and Brazil offset decreases in the EU, Japan, the Philippines, and Mexico.

• Despite mostly negative margins across the industry, China's production is higher considering a higher-than-expected profit as producers look to reduce herd sizes and thus maintain cash flow.

• EU production continues to decrease due to environmental regulatory pressure, weaker consumption, and relatively high production costs.

• Philippine pork production is down 3% due to the spread of ASF in the main producing regions.

• World pork exports for 2023 are forecast 2% higher than the April forecast, reaching 10.8 Mt. Increased shipments from the U.S. and Brazil more than offset decreases from Canada, the UK, and the EU.

• Reduced pork supply in the EU provides opportunities for the United States and Brazil to gain market share in Asia, including South Korea and the Philippines. Strong demand from China has benefited most major pork exporters to date.

• Brazil continues to make export gains and set records for beef, pork, and chicken. Brazil's pork exports are projected to be 8% higher than in 2022, reaching 1.5 million tons. This is due to strong exports to most markets in Asia, including particularly strong shipments to China and Hong Kong. Lower feed prices in Brazil are expected to further boost production and strengthen price competitiveness.

Global estimates

• World pork production in 2023 is expected to reach 114.8 Mt, which represents an increase of 0.3% over the 2022 total (114.4 Mt).

• Global exports are expected to fall by 1.8% compared to 2022, from 11.0 Mt to 10.8 Mt.

• Imports are expected to reach 9.81 Mt in 2023, representing a drop of 0.9% compared to the previous year (9.89 Mt).

• Apparent consumption is forecast to grow by 0.5%, from 113.2 to 113.8 Mt.

Summary by country

• China is expected to produce 56.0 Mt, which represents an increase of 1.1% with respect to 2022. On the other hand, an 8.2% increase in the volume of imports is estimated, which would reach 2.3 Mt.

• The European Union's production is expected to fall by 2.8% to 21.7 Mt, while its exports are expected to reach 3.7 Mt, which represents a drop of 11.3% compared to 2022. On the other hand, imports are estimated at 100,000 t, representing a decrease of 17.4% compared to the previous year.

• U.S. production is expected to increase by 1.4% to 12.4 Mt, and exports are expected to increase by 9.0% to 3.14 Mt.

• Japan is expected to position itself as the world's second-largest pork importer with 1.5 Mt, although its imports are expected to decrease by 3.5%.

• Brazil is expected to increase its production volume by 2.6%, reaching 4.5 Mt. Exports are also expected to reach 1.5 Mt, an increase of 13.7%.

• Mexico is expected to grow 2.0% in production with approximately 1.6 Mt. On the other hand, it will maintain its position as the third largest importer in the world and first in Latin America with 1.31 Mt, a figure that represents an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous year.