Corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - July 2023

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on July 12 are presented:

Corn

• World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1224.5 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.4% compared to the 2022/23 season (1150.7 Mt).

• United States production is expected to reach 389.1 Mt, up 11.6% compared to the previous season (348.8 Mt), while China will increase its harvest by 1.0% to 280.0 Mt. The European Union is forecast to grow by 19.7% with 63.4 Mt, while Ukraine, with 25 Mt, will see a decrease of 7.4%.

• Brazil's production is estimated at 129 Mt, representing a decrease of 3.0% compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 54 Mt, an increase of 58.8% compared to the previous season.

• World corn exports are forecast to increase by 12.3%, from 176.6 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 198.3 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second-largest exporter of the grain, reaching 53.3 Mt, an increase of 27.3% over the previous season.

• The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with an increase of 84.1% in this new season with 40.5 Mt, while Brazil is estimated at 55 Mt, which represents a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous season.

• China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 27.8% compared to the previous season (18.0 Mt), while the European Union is expected to reduce its imports by 2.0% with 24 Mt.

• World ending stocks are expected to increase by 6.0% to 314.1 Mt. In fact, for the United States, stocks are expected to increase by 61.4%, while stocks in Brazil and China are expected to decrease by 16.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is forecast to increase by 9.6% compared to the previous season, from 369.7 to 405.3 Mt.

• Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

• Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 13.6% with respect to the 2022/23 season (8.8 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, thus returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

• This new report estimates a U.S. crop of 117.0 Mt, an increase of only 0.6% compared to the 2022/23 season when the crop reached 116.4 Mt.

• The export activity would be led by Brazil with 96.5 Mt, growing by 2.7% compared to the previous season (94.0 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 50.3 Mt, a figure that represents a 6.6% decrease compared to the last harvest (53.9 Mt).

• Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 21.1% with respect to the 2022/23 season (3.8 Mt).

• China is expected to import 99 Mt, a volume similar to that of the previous season.

• The soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 17.6% globally to 121.0 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Argentina, and Brazil.